베트남, 태국, 인도네시아: 일본 쌀이 가장 적합한 시장은 어디일까?

베트남, 태국, 인도네시아: 일본 쌀이 가장 잘 맞는 시장은?

313월2026

B&Company

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추상적인

Rice remains a staple food across Southeast Asia, but not every rice market is equally suited to Japanese rice. As Japanese rice exports move beyond commodity trade toward premium, foodservice, and value-added channels, Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia offer three distinct demand environments. Each market differs in consumer taste, spending patterns, openness to imported rice, and the depth of its Japanese food ecosystem. Against that backdrop, this article examines where Japanese rice is most likely to find product-market fit among the three countries.

What makes a market fit for Japanese rice?

Japanese rice is now more clearly positioned as a value-added category, rather than a product competing through low prices or sheer volume. It is predominantly short-grain Japonica rice, known for its round shape, stickiness, and soft texture when cooked; at the same time, Japan’s export portfolio has expanded beyond commercial rice to include packed rice, rice-based prepared meals, rice flour, and rice-flour products. In 2025, the largest destinations for Japanese rice were Hong Kong, the United States, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand, suggesting that the product performs best in markets with clear demand for premium offerings and Japanese dining experiences[1].

Koshihikari rice – Japan’s iconic premium rice variety

Koshihikari rice - Japan's iconic premium rice variety

출처: Japan.net

Because Japanese rice does not enjoy a clear advantage in either price or scale, judging market fit cannot rely on overall rice consumption alone. More importantly, the question is whether a market is genuinely ready to absorb a product with distinctive characteristics and a clear culinary identity. Based on the nature of the product and the current export-promotion direction of MAFF[2] (Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries), the fit of each market can be assessed through these main dimensions:

– Taste compatibility

– Ability to pay for the premium segment

– Depth of the Japanese foodservice ecosystem

– Openness to imported rice

– Competitive pressure from domestic premium rice

Vietnam: The Most Promising Emerging Fit for Japanese Rice

In terms of scale, Vietnam remains one of the region’s major rice markets. In 2025, paddy output reached 43.54 million tons, the highest level in four years[3]하지만 수요 측면에서는 시장이 성숙기에 접어들면서 1인당 평균 쌀 소비량은 2024년에 월 6.5kg으로 감소했는데, 이는 2008년 대비 40% 감소한 수치입니다.[4]. That suggests future growth is less about higher volumes and more about quality, segmentation, and the way rice is consumed.

맛의 관점에서 볼 때, 베트남은 아직 자포니카 쌀의 대규모 시장으로 적합하지 않습니다. 메콩델타 지역의 쌀 생산은 여전히 ST25, OM5451, 다이톰 8, OM18과 같은 고급 백미와 장립종 향미 품종에 집중되어 있으며, 자포니카 쌀은 재배 면적의 약 4%에 불과합니다. 따라서 자포니카 쌀은 대중 시장의 일상적인 식사보다는 스시, 오니기리, 도시락, 일본식 덮밥과 같은 특수 용도에 더 적합합니다.

OM5451 rice – one of the most widely grown rice varieties in Vietnam

OM5451 rice - one of the most widely grown rice varieties in Vietnam

출처: VIFOOD

동시에 베트남은 프리미엄 부문에서 고무적인 신호를 보여주고 있습니다. 미슐랭 가이드 베트남 2025에는 전년 대비 10% 증가한 181개의 레스토랑이 등재되었는데, 이는 고급 식사 경험에 대한 관심 증가를 반영합니다. 또한 소비자들은 소득 증가와 식품 안전, 위생 및 건강한 라이프스타일에 대한 관심 증대에 힘입어 전통적인 재래시장에서 슈퍼마켓과 현대적인 매장으로 점차 이동하고 있습니다.[5].

Vietnam’s Japanese food ecosystem is also expanding rapidly. As of May 2025, the country had 2,688 Japanese restaurants, including 1,219 in Ho Chi Minh City alone – nearly four times the 2015 level[6]. That creates a natural sales channel for Japanese rice, especially in restaurants, ready-to-eat foods, and formats that need to preserve an authentic Japanese dining experience.

Still, Vietnam maintains relatively strong protection for imported rice, with MFN tariffs as high as 40%, although quota-based 0% preferences are available for certain neighboring partners such as Laos and Cambodia[7]. As a result, Japanese rice is unlikely to compete on price across the mass market and is better positioned in premium niches.

베트남에서 일본 쌀이 직면한 가장 큰 어려움은 국내 고급 품종과의 경쟁입니다. 미국 농무부(USDA)에 따르면, OM5451, 다이톰 8, OM18 품종은 2025년 메콩델타 지역의 동-봄철 쌀 재배 면적의 60%, 하-가을철 재배 면적의 68%를 차지할 것으로 예상되며, 이는 베트남이 고품질 쌀 생산 및 수출에 점점 더 집중하고 있음을 보여줍니다. 이러한 상황에서 일본 쌀은 일본 요리의 정통성과 국내산 쌀로는 완벽하게 재현할 수 없는 원산지 가치 제안과 결합될 때 비로소 두각을 나타낼 수 있습니다.

Thailand: The Best Current Fit for Japanese Rice

Thailand remains a large rice-consuming market, but it has clearly entered a mature phase. USDA projects domestic rice consumption in MY 2025/26 at 12.4 million tons, broadly stable from the previous season, while per-capita consumption has fallen from 100 kg in 2018 to about 75 kg in recent years[8]. That points to a market where growth is no longer driven by volume, but increasingly by quality and specialized consumption occasions.

In terms of mainstream taste preferences, Thailand is not the most natural market for Japanese rice. Consumers are closely attached to long-grain fragrant rice, especially Hom Mali, whereas Japanese rice belongs to the short-grain Japonica category and has a softer, stickier texture.

Hom Mali – Thailand’s signature fragrant rice

Hom Mali - Thailand's signature fragrant rice

출처: Phuong Nam Food

Thailand nonetheless shows solid purchasing power for premium food, especially among urban consumers. According to the USDA, the price of Hom Mali paddy reached 15,003 baht per ton in January 2025, far above the 9,180 baht per ton recorded for ordinary white paddy. The price gap suggests that consumers are willing to pay more for quality and brand value in rice.

Thailand’s Japanese food ecosystem is another major advantage. JETRO’s latest survey counted 5,781 Japanese restaurants in 2025, up sharply from just 745 in 2007[9]. This gives Thailand one of the deepest and broadest Japanese foodservice base in the region, centered on Bangkok, and makes restaurants the most natural entry point for Japanese rice.

Market access, however, is not especially easy. Rice imports remain subject to tariff-rate quotas and tight licensing controls, with an in-quota tariff of 30% and an out-of-quota tariff of 52%[10] on a quota volume of 249,757 tons, while imported food more broadly must also comply with licensing, production-standard, and labeling requirements.

At the premium end, Thailand already has a powerful domestic benchmark in Hom Mali. Japanese rice, therefore, has room to grow only when it is positioned not as another premium rice but as an indispensable component of an authentic Japanese dining experience that emphasizes origin, quality, story, and sensory precision.

Indonesia: The Largest Long-Term Opportunity for Japanese Rice

인도네시아는 2024년 기준 약 2억 8,350만 명의 인구를 바탕으로 여전히 매우 큰 쌀 시장입니다. 그러나 현재 이 시장은 자유 무역보다는 식량 자급 정책에 의해 더 큰 영향을 받고 있습니다. 인도네시아 통계청(BPS)은 2025년 식량 소비용 쌀 생산량을 3,469만 톤으로 예상했는데, 이는 2024년 대비 13.29% 증가한 수치입니다.[11], while USDA Indonesia noted that the government would only allow specialty rice imports in MY 2025/26. This suggests that although the underlying demand is massive, market access for imported rice is now largely confined to specialized segments.

From a mass-market taste perspective, Indonesia is not the most natural fit for Japanese rice. The clearest signal is the government’s own position that imported rice is now intended only for specific restaurant uses, including Japanese rice for Japanese restaurants and basmati for Arab or Indian restaurants, because such needs cannot be replaced by domestic rice[12].

인도네시아에는 고급 식품에 기꺼이 비용을 지불할 의향이 있는 도시 소비자층이 존재하지만, 이러한 수요는 주로 중산층 및 고소득 가구와 전문적인 현대식 소매 채널에 집중되어 있습니다. 통계청(BPS)에 따르면 중산층 및 중산층 지향 계층은 전체 인구의 66.35%를 차지하지만 가계 지출의 81.49%를 차지합니다.[13], while USDA Indonesia notes that demand for healthy, nutritious, and premium products continues to rise [14].

MAFF’s 2025 survey estimated around 6,580 Japanese restaurants in Indonesia, an increase of 2,580 from the previous survey period. That places Indonesia among the more significant Japanese food markets in the region and confirms that a real niche exists for Japanese rice in foodservice[15].

Although Indonesia was once a major rice importer, it has tightened controls to prioritize self-sufficiency and, from MY 2025/26, allows only specialty rice imports for uses that cannot be substituted by domestic rice. With the main barrier lying in strict licensing rather than tariff levels, Japanese rice is currently confined to a narrow market serving high-end restaurants and processing demand, rather than broad-based retail expansion.

Farmers cultivating rice in Indonesia

Country synthesis: Where does Japanese rice have product–market fit?

Thailand offers the clearest current fit for Japanese rice, not because of mass demand, but because it already has a consumer tier that understands and accepts the value of Japanese cuisine. Its large Japanese restaurant base and strong urban premium demand create a ready-made niche. Even so, Japanese rice stands out there only when it is positioned as a core element of an authentic Japanese dining experience, rather than simply another premium rice.

Vietnam may not yet match Thailand in terms of depth of fit, but it is the market where fit appears to be emerging fastest. The expansion of premium dining and the rapid growth of Japanese foodservice point to an urban consumer base that is becoming more receptive to quality, experience, and brand story. That makes Vietnam the most promising market for Japanese rice to grow through foodservice, ready-made foods, and premium retail, rather than through everyday table rice competition.

Indonesia has the largest long-term upside thanks to its sizable middle class and rising interest in premium food, yet Japanese rice remains heavily constrained by policy. Although the Japanese restaurant network and household purchasing power are large enough to support a real customer niche, the government’s specialty-only import policy sharply narrows access. For now, the fit in Indonesia is highly selective and shaped more by policy windows than by underlying demand alone.

결론

Taken together, the three markets suggest that Japanese rice performs best not where rice demand is largest, but where premium demand, Japanese foodservice, and market access align. Thailand appears to offer the best current fit, Vietnam the strongest emerging fit, and Indonesia the biggest long-term potential under the narrowest entry window. For exporters, that means success will depend less on pushing Japanese rice as a general premium product and more on matching each market with the right positioning, channel, and consumption context.