2026년 초 몇 달은 동남아시아 지역에 대한 스트레스 테스트 역할을 했습니다. 중동 지역의 긴장이 급격히 고조되어 호르무즈 해협이 폐쇄되면서 이 지역 액화천연가스(LNG)와 원유 수입량의 약 80%가 차질을 빚었습니다.¹ 이 “오일 쇼크”는 단순히 연료 가격을 끌어올린 데 그치지 않고, 글로벌 화석연료 시장에 종속된 경제의 구조적 취약성을 드러냈다.³

위기는 역내 현상이지만 대응은 점점 더 분절되고 있다. 회원국별 전환 경로에는 상당한 차이가 있다. 일부 국가는 보호주의적 보조금을 더욱 확대하는 반면, 다른 국가들은 특히 Vietnam의 녹색 전환을 통해 국가 경제 생존을 위한 수단으로 국내 생산 재생에너지로의 전환을 가속화하고 있다.

유가 변동성에 대한 노출: 수입국 vs. 수출국

이번 충격은 동남아시아를 순석유수지라는 단층선을 따라 양분한다. 수입국인 Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, 은 에너지 비용이 물류 및 공급망 전반으로 파급되면서 즉각적인 스태그플레이션 압력에 직면하고 있다. Philippines(걸프 지역 의존도 90%)는 2026년 3월 국가 에너지 비상사태를 선포했으며, Thailand는 경유 가격을 상한제로 묶었다. Singapore는 200일 이상의 전략 비축량을 보유하고 있음에도 2026년 인플레이션 전망을 상향 조정했다[1].

수출국인 Indonesia와 Malaysia 은 세입 증가를 경험했지만, 그 효과는 빠르게 약화되고 있다. Indonesia는 전체 US$22.5 billion 규모의 연료 보조금 예산을 US$70/barrel로 설정했으나, 전 세계 유가의 주요 기준으로 사용되는 Brent가 US$104 수준에 근접하면서 재정 격차가 확대되고 루피아에 부담을 주고 있다.[2], Malaysia는 최근의 재정 개혁에 힘입어 BUDI95 보조금을 유지할 수 있어 상대적으로 완충력이 높지만, 국내 정제를 위해 중질 원유를 재수입하고 기준유 가격 변동에 여전히 노출되어 있어 영향에서 자유롭지 않다.

표 1: 국가별 오일 쇼크 취약성 — 동남아시아

*주: PH: Philippines, VN: Vietnam, TH: Thailand, SG: Singapore, ID: Indonesia, MY: Malaysia

B&Company의 합성

주목할 사례 연구: 회복탄력성을 위한 다양한 경로

Indonesia: 보조금 개혁과 바이오연료 확대

인도네시아는 역사적으로 가격 상한제를 통해 국민을 보호해 왔지만, 2026년 위기로 인해 재정 적자가 GDP의 3.5%라는 법정 한도에 근접하게 되었습니다.[12] To mitigate this, Jakarta has revived its ambitious biofuel mandate. In March 2026, President Prabowo Subianto announced a transition to a 50% biodiesel blend (B50) by the second half of 2026, accelerating the previous B40 timeline to reduce the gasoil import bill.

Vietnam: Rapid demand growth and renewable ambitions

The Vietnam green transition is driven by a unique dual mandate: sustaining 10% annual GDP growth while meeting net-zero commitments. Under the revised Power Development Plan VIII (PDP8), Vietnam aims to increase its renewable capacity to nearly 50% of the energy mix by 2030.[13] A significant shift is the rise of domestic corporations like Vingroup (via VinEnergo), which is spearheading a US$4.5 billion offshore wind project to replace aging coal assets.[14]

The first offshore wind data transfer collaboration in Vietnam is between VinEnergo (Vingroup) and the FIMO Center

출처: VinGroup

Thailand: The EV hub strategy

태국은 이번 위기를 발판 삼아 전기차 분야에서 '동양의 디트로이트'로서의 입지를 공고히 했습니다. 2026년 1월까지 신차 판매량 대비 전기차 보급률은 사상 최고치인 48%를 기록할 것으로 예상되며, 이는 차량당 최대 10만 바트(약 2,700달러)의 보조금 지급과 8%에서 2%로 인하된 전기차 3.5 인센티브 제도의 ​​지원에 힘입은 결과입니다.[15] This strategy aims not only to reduce fuel consumption but to transition the domestic automotive workforce into a new high-tech manufacturing sector.

Philippines: Energy security challenges

The Philippines remains one of the most price-sensitive markets. In March 2026, President Marcos Jr. signed Republic Act No. 12316, granting emergency powers to suspend fuel excise taxes once global oil prices hit US$80 per barrel.[16] Unlike Thailand or Vietnam, the Philippines’ transition is hampered by infrastructure gaps, leading to a heavy reliance on emergency subsidies for transport workers.

Policy comparison: Fiscal sustainability vs. Reform

The 2026 crisis has highlighted a divergence in regulatory philosophy. “Market-driven” economies (Vietnam, Philippines) allow prices to reflect global trends but deploy temporary tax holidays, whereas “subsidized” economies (Indonesia, Malaysia) prioritize social stability at the cost of fiscal health.

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Green transition readiness index 2026

The oil shock has not created Southeast Asia’s clean energy imperative — it has accelerated one already underway. But readiness varies sharply across the region.

Singapore and Malaysia lead on green finance architecture: Singapore has established a carbon tax and trading framework, while Malaysia pioneered sustainability-linked bonds and ASEAN Green Bond Standards.[17] Vietnam is the region’s standout deployment story, with the total renewable energy sources (wind, solar, biomass) accounting for approximately 24,453 MW at the end of 2025.[18] The crisis is now compounding that momentum: the introduction of direct power purchase agreements is allowing large companies like LEGO and Samsung to buy electricity directly from wind and solar producers, potentially doubling the renewable share in Vietnam’s power mix. Vietnam ranked 2nd among the top developing economies attracting the most FDI in renewable energy between 2015 and 2022, at approximately 106.8 billion USD.[19]

The Philippines is following, having fully opened its solar, wind, biomass, and tidal sectors to foreign ownership and approved over 100 key energy projects, including offshore wind, hydropower, and infrastructure expansions.[20] Indonesia, however, remains constrained. Its energy transition is limited by a state-dominated electricity market, fragmented governance, and weak grid readiness, and protectionist rules continue to cap foreign ownership in renewables.[21] The gap between Vietnam and Indonesia on transition readiness is arguably the region’s most consequential divergence heading into the decade.

Across all markets, the financing shortfall is structural. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates annual clean energy investment in Southeast Asia must rise fivefold to US$190 billion by 2035, for the region to achieve its goals.[22]

Regional trends and integration: moving toward unity

The shock has injected fresh urgency into the long-stalled ASEAN Power Grid (APG). 2026 marks the start of the ASEAN Plan of Action or Energy Cooperation 2026–2030 (APAEC) implementation cycle, signaling the APG moving from strategic planning toward coordinated infrastructure development. The Philippines, as the 2026 ASEAN Chair, has prioritized APG integration and initiated grid interconnection talks with Malaysia. Yet the hard constraints remain.

“Vision vs. voltage” remains a challenge. As of late 2024, the region has only 7.7 GW of interconnection capacity across 9 priority projects.[23] Progress is being catalyzed by the ASEAN Power Grid Financing Facility (APGF), which aims to harmonize technical standards and dispute resolution by the 2027 Singapore chairmanship.

Implications for investors: high-potential markets

For investors, the 2026 shock is functioning as a stress test and a signal simultaneously. Three themes stand out.

1. Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines offer the most potential in the short term to access the clean energy sector

Solar project profitability in the 3 countries can rise up to 9 percentage points, driven by battery integration that makes dispatchable solar economically feasible,[24] and both markets now have Direct Power Purchase Agreement (DPPA) frameworks to monetize it. Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia together attracted US$4.6 billion in clean energy investment in 2024, with Brookfield Asset Management committing capital across all three.[25]

2. Indonesia and the Philippines’ critical minerals represent a longer-horizon opportunity

Indonesia and the Philippines have the potential to anchor the global supply chain for critical minerals driving the energy transition, but currently lack domestic processing capabilities,[26] creating a clear greenfield investment thesis for battery supply chain investors.

3. Grid infrastructure is the region’s most undersupplied asset class

The finalization of the APAEC 2026–2030 and renewal of the APG enhanced MOU mark a crucial opportunity to transform long-standing commitments into meaningful regional energy integration, and the first movers in cross-border transmission financing will define the region’s energy architecture for decades.

The transition from oil dependence to grid-scale renewables will not be linear. But the 2026 shock has compressed the timeline, and for investors with the patience and local knowledge to navigate regulatory heterogeneity, Southeast Asia’s energy reordering represents one of the decade’s most consequential allocation opportunities.

결론

The 2026 oil shock has proven that there is no one-size-fits-all transition. Indonesia is betting on palm-based energy independence, Thailand on becoming an EV manufacturing hub, and Vietnam’s green transition on a massive, grid-scale renewable overhaul supported by international finance.

Despite these different pathways, a shared momentum has emerged. Energy security is no longer viewed as a matter of securing supply, but as a structural shift toward domestic, low-carbon generation. As global standards like the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) take effect, the “greenness” of a nation’s energy grid will become the ultimate determinant of its industrial competitiveness in the post-oil-crisis era.

더 보기

중동 분쟁: 정치와 청정에너지에 대한 관점 – 베트남의 바이오연료 에너지 황금기

[인포그래픽] 동남아시아 주요 도시 생활비: 하노이, 저렴한 생활비로 경쟁력 있는 목적지로 부상

* 이 기사에서 정보를 인용하고자 하신다면 출처를 원문 기사 링크와 함께 인용하여 저작권을 존중해 주시기 바랍니다.

[1] https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2026/04/southeast-asias-agency-amid-the-new-oil-crisis

[2] https://jakartaglobe.id/business/indonesia-says-no-energy-crisis-as-philippines-declares-one

[3] https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2026/04/southeast-asias-agency-amid-the-new-oil-crisis

[4] https://www.thesoutheastasiadesk.com/p/southeast-asia-scrambles-as-strait

[5] https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/04/16/asias-economic-resilience-is-being-tested-by-the-energy-shock

[6] https://think.ing.com/articles/oil-shock-for-asia-identifying-the-first-pressure-points/

[7] https://blog.investvietnam.co/104-gasoline-industry-in-vietnam-statistics-data-trends-in-2026/

[8] https://energytracker.asia/thailand-energy-sector/

[9] https://www.npr.org/2026/03/26/nx-s1-5760763/southeast-asia-is-being-hit-hard-by-irans-cutoff-of-oil-and-gas

[10] https://caseforsea.org/energy-security-in-the-shadow-of-war-how-case-countries-are-navigating-the-2026-fuel-crisis/

[11] https://b-company.jp/vietnam-fuel-price-update-weekly-rising-volatility-and-implications-for-business/

[12] https://www.mk.co.kr/en/world/12009974

[13] https://www.vilaf.com.vn/blog/vietnams-revised-pdp-8-a-strategic-path-for-national-electricity-development/

[14] https://b-company.jp/vietnams-renewable-energy-boom-southeast-asias-leader-with-vingroup-emerging-as-a-key-domestic-player/

[15] https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/thailand-s-ev-sales-surge-to-record-levels-in-january-2026

[16] https://pco.gov.ph/news_releases/pbbm-signs-ra-12316-granting-the-president-emergency-powers-to-suspend-reduce-fuel-excise-tax/

[17] https://thefulleracademy.com/practices-of-financial-institutions-towards-green-financing-in-asean-region/

[18] https://en.evn.com.vn/d/en-US/news/Vietnams-power-system-ranks-second-in-ASEAN-60-163-501175

[19] https://en.nhandan.vn/fdi-attraction-to-prioritise-green-projects-post145700.html

[20] https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2026/04/09/budi95-is-seen-as-a-right-step-in-targeted-fuel-subsidy-reform-for-malaysia-says-world-bank

[21] https://ieefa.org/resources/building-credibility-indonesias-energy-transition-insights-etm-and-jetp-indonesia

[22] https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/southeast-asia-needs-boost-investments-five-fold-by-2035-meet-climate-goals-iea-2024-10-21/

[23] https://asean.org/adb-and-world-bank-group-launch-the-asean-power-grid-financing-initiative-with-the-asean-secretariat-and-the-asean-centre-for-energy-ace/

[24] https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/adding-storage-can-boost-solar-projects-profitability-in-indonesia-viet-nam-and-the-philippines/

[25] https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/from-emission-intensive-to-investment-hotspots-championing-renewables-in-3-asean-economies/country-snapshots-and-opportunities/

[26] https://peacehumanity.org/monitor/false-promises-of-battery-minerals-mining-inindonesia-and-the-philippines/