越南一般贸易渠道的"过滤浪潮"：预测2026年后的销售渠道转变

越南一般贸易渠道的“过滤浪潮”：预测2026年后的销售渠道转变

155 月2026

B&Company

B&Company 是第一家自 2008 年起在越南专门从事市场研究和投资咨询的日本公司。.

在本“越南简报”栏目中，B&Company 的青年研究人员将及时提供有关越南工业趋势、消费趋势和社会运动的信息。.

本文以英文撰写，其他语言版本为自动翻译版本。请以英文版本为准。尽管我们力求确保原始信息的准确性，但请您自行核实每条信息。文中的解读和未来展望均为各研究者的个人观点。.

Vietnam’s General Trade (GT) channel — the sprawling network of neighborhood grocery stores, small distributors, and independent agents that has long been the backbone of FMCG distribution — is entering one of its most consequential restructuring phases. Driven by an unprecedented tax policy overhaul taking effect in 2026, a relentless squeeze from modern trade formats and e-commerce, and tightening consumer wallets, the GT landscape is set for a significant “filtering” that will reshape how brands reach Vietnamese consumers. This article examines what is happening, why it matters, and what businesses and researchers can expect beyond 2026.

GT频道：依然占据主导地位，但面临压力

The scale of Vietnam’s general trade network remains remarkable. According to Nielsen IQ, GT still accounts for 70% of total retail activity, with a contribution nationwide of up to 81% to the FMCG sales [1].

快速消费品各渠道销售额（2025 年）

销售增长

渠道	同比增长率（%）
一般贸易	+1
现代贸易（小规模）	+9
现代贸易（大幅面）	+6
在线的	+20
妈妈和宝宝	+10

来源：NIQ

然而，裂痕正在扩大。传统渠道在快速消费品线下销售额中占据很大份额，但到2025年仅增长1%，而线上渠道仅占总销售额的5%，却实现了20%的惊人增长。包括超市、便利店和迷你超市等在内的现代渠道，其增速是传统渠道的6到9倍。数据证实了结构性警示：传统渠道目前仍保持着规模优势，但增长引擎已彻底转移到现代渠道和电子商务。与此同时，传统渠道正面临着一项新的、更具结构性的挑战：财政正规化。

For decades, Vietnam’s household businesses paid taxes under a “lump-sum” model, where tax authorities simply assigned a fixed annual tax figure. This system was administratively easy but notorious for opacity, with significant underreporting of actual revenues. That era is now over.

2025年5月4日，政治局颁布了关于私营经济发展的第68-NQ/TW号决议，要求最迟在2026年废除家庭企业一次性征税制。第198/2025/QH15号决议使该规定自2026年1月1日起生效，家庭企业现在需要根据实际收入自行申报、自行计算和自行缴纳税款。.

最近，修订后的越南家庭经营税将免税营业额门槛从1亿越南盾提高到 10亿越南盾 每年是初始水平的10倍，这意味着约有235,800家企业受益，总计减免了2.164万亿越南盾的企业所得税。 [2]. 新系统根据年收入将运营商分为四个等级，每个等级都有不同的合规负担：

表1. 越南家庭企业税收分类（2026年4月29日更新）

	第一组	第二组	第三组	第四组
年收入	≤10亿越南盾（约3.8万美元）	超过10亿至30亿越南盾（3.8万至11.5万美元）	超过30亿至500亿越南盾（11.5万美元至190万美元）	超过500亿越南盾（约190万美元）
增值税	✗ 豁免	基于收入的计算（%增值税率×指定收入）
增值税	✗ 豁免	按季度支付	按季度支付	按月支付
个人所得税（PIT）	✗ 豁免	§ 方案 1：（收入 − 支出）× 15% § Option 2: (Revenue – Taxable threshold) × PIT Rate	（收入 - 支出）× 17%	（收入 - 支出）× 20%
电子发票	鼓励	强制的
会计系统	简易账簿	Full accounting books – micro/small enterprise or household business standard

B&Company 汇编自法律图书馆 [3] 以及政府电子报纸 [4]

合规负担依然存在，尤其对中层企业而言。越南工商会（VCCI）的一项调查发现，超过70%的个体户企业担心繁琐的流程；近70%担心面临处罚风险；超过60%认为合规成本高昂，并担心无法跟上监管法规的更新。 [5]. 对于利润本就微薄的小型杂货店经营者来说，数字会计、电子发票软件和季度税务申报等额外的行政负担，可能会直接导致店铺倒闭。.

除税收外，导致一般贸易渠道萎缩的关键因素还有：

The decline of Vietnam’s General Trade channel is not a single-cause story. Tax formalization in 2026 acts as a pressure accelerator — but the structural erosion has been building for years, driven by three forces that are reshaping 为什么以及如何 越南消费者购物。.

家庭收入的增长正在改变人们的购物预期：

Vietnam’s middle class has expanded rapidly, with the estimation of 74% Vietnamese population entering the consuming class in 2030, rising from 40.8% in 2020[6]. As incomes rise, shoppers increasingly prioritize product variety, hygiene standards, price transparency, and the overall shopping experience, criteria that the average grocery store, with its narrow assortment and informal environment, struggles to meet. Higher-income households are not abandoning convenience; they are simply raising the bar for what “convenient” means.

现代零售模式在便利性方面占据优势：

Mini-marts and convenience store chains, like WinMart+, Circle K, GS25, FamilyMart, etc. have aggressively expanded into residential neighborhoods, directly overlapping with the grocery store’s traditional catchment. These formats offer air-conditioned shopping, standardized pricing, loyalty programs, and extended hours. For the neighborhood shopper, the marginal effort difference between a grocery store and a nearby convenience store has nearly disappeared, but the experience gap has not.

Online shopping is redefining “cheap and easy”:

Platforms like Shopee, TikTok Shop, and Lazada have made home delivery faster and often cheaper than buying in-store, particularly for packaged FMCG staples. Younger shoppers increasingly default to apps for routine purchases, eroding the traditional grocery store’s core transaction: the small, frequent, proximity-driven top-up buy.

在此背景下，2026 年的税收改革与其说是一种干扰，不如说是将已经存在的压力正式化——对于一些边缘经营者来说，这可能会成为促使他们决定关门的行政门槛。.

Forecasting outlet contraction post-2026: A “natural filter” in action

问题不再是GT门店数量是否会减少，而是减少的幅度是否会加快，以及之后会出现什么情况。.

邻近行业的先例颇具启发意义。2025年上半年，越南全国将有超过5万家餐饮门店关闭，总数同比下降7.1%，河内和胡志明市的降幅均超过11%。传统零售渠道也面临着类似的多重压力：2026年税制改革带来的合规成本上升、便利连锁店的持续竞争，以及日常购物加速向线上平台转移。对于年收入在10亿至30亿越南盾之间、且需承担全部增值税、个人所得税和电子发票义务的中型运营商而言，正规化后的利润率可能难以维持。从绝对数量上看，如果未来三年内大约 140 万家 GT 门店中有 15% 至 20% 退出或合并，那就意味着活跃销售点减少了 20 万至 28 万个——这将显著改变快速消费品品牌在最后一公里接触越南消费者的方式。

然而，萎缩并不意味着崩溃，加速企业倒闭的压力同时也在推动幸存的经营者走向更可持续的商业模式。目前已经出现了几种转型路径：

通过B2B平台实现数字化补货：

OneShop（以前称为 VinShop）、POS365、Sapo 等应用程序使杂货店老板能够以折扣价直接订购产品，实现供应链（采购、运输、库存和财务管理等）的数字化，并提高合规运营商的利润率。.

一些小型企业转向数字化零售平台，以整合其管理流程。

来源：丹·特里, POS 365

混合 GT-MT 格式：

Programs like MM Mega Market’s “Good Price” project[7], which helps investors transform traditional grocery stores into modern retail models, helping independent grocery owners upgrade their store layouts, planograms, and supplier terms to meet modern trade standards — effectively creating a third category between informal grocery stores and organized retail chains. Similarly, Saigon Co.op and Aeon Vietnam’s development of modern grocery formats, including assisting local, small-scale producers in reaching international standards, is creating a pathway for formalization rather than extinction.

分销商整合：

随着小型代理商退出市场，中型分销商正在吸收他们的路线和零售客户，从而建立规模，使得合规性和对销售队伍自动化的投资在经济上更具可行性。.

2028 年的 GT 渠道门店数量可能会减少，但剩余门店的结构将更加强大：库存更充足、数字化连接更完善、更符合相关法规。对于快速消费品品牌而言，这种转变有利有弊：可触达的渠道减少了，但每个渠道都拥有更可靠的数据和更可预测的订购行为作为支撑。.

B&Company如何提供支持

应对GT重组需要的不仅仅是宏观分析，更需要本地化的知识。B&Company在越南拥有超过15年的实地经验，能够为品牌商和分销商提供应对GT重组所需的全套工具包：

– Enterprise-level quantitative trade surveys to track outlet counts and channel health by province;

– In-depth interviews and ethnographic shop-alongs with grocery owners and distributors to understand the real economics behind closures and platform adoption;

– Mystery shopping to monitor brand visibility and stock compliance at the outlet level;

– Market entry feasibility studies for brands rethinking their distribution strategy post-2026;

– and Access to the 越南企业数据库 — 将超过 100 万家企业映射到区和街道级别，以便精确定位有风险的分销节点。.

As the filtering wave accelerates beyond 2026, the brands that will win in Vietnam’s general trade channel are those that understand the channel not as a static map, but as a living system under transformation. Precise, timely research is the foundation of that understanding.

日本：东京

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