Vietnam-US trading value record 2020-2024

单位：亿美元

来源： 越南海关总局和工贸部

越南影响评估

美国收紧进口并加剧保护主义的趋势不可逆转，因为这是其恢复国内制造业战略的一部分。对于越南这一出口导向型经济体而言，这种压力不可避免。.

最初预计将受到该政策最直接负面影响的行业包括纺织服装、家具及室内用品、海产品、电子产品和零部件 [9]. These sectors account for a significant proportion of Vietnam’s export turnover to the U.S., with many businesses heavily dependent on this market. Among them, textiles and footwear are considered the most sensitive, as the U.S. is currently the largest export market for companies in this field. The furniture and interior goods sector is also vulnerable, given the widespread presence of Vietnamese wood products in the U.S. market. Similarly, the electronics and components industry—known for its high export volume—faces risks of supply chain disruptions and order reductions if tariffs increase production costs.

Additionally, this information has significantly impacted the sentiment of foreign investors in Vietnam, particularly multinational companies producing goods for the U.S. market. The tariff hike, which causes a sudden increase in the cost of “Made in Vietnam” products, undermines price competitiveness, forcing businesses to reconsider maintaining, downsizing, or relocating part of their production lines to other countries in the region with lower or no tariffs. Based on the comparative reciprocal tariff rates, several regional countries might indeed become attractive alternatives for foreign investors looking to optimize costs, such as Singapore (10%), Philippines (17%), Malaysia (24%), Indonesia (32%), Thailand (36%) [13].  因此，受益于外国直接投资浪潮的工业地产市场、工业园区基础设施和物流业，也可能通过入住率下降以及生产空间、仓库和物流服务需求减少而受到间接影响。.

However, this policy also has a positive impact on domestic production. Vietnam can take advantage of this time to develop its specialized manufacturing industry. Although China is currently the country facing the highest tariffs from the U.S., due to its geographic proximity and good diplomatic relations with Vietnam, it is considered a strategic destination for factories looking to avoid retaliatory tariffs when exporting to the U.S. The Trump administration places great importance on determining the origin of goods and applies the principle of “Substantial Transformation” to assess whether a product qualifies as the export country’s goods [10]. 如果越南的制造过程仅限于简单加工或组装，未对产品的结构或功能产生重大改变，美国可能仍会将其视为中国商品，并征收高额报复性关税。然而，如果越南的生产过程足够深入，使产品的结构或功能发生明显转变，该产品将被认定为越南商品，并可能享受较低的税率。.

这对越南尤为有利，因为过去该国主要被视为加工和组装基地，而非专业化制造基地。中国企业转移技术和先进生产工艺，有助于越南发展高附加值产业，尤其是电子、机械和纺织等领域。尽管短期内，由于适应所需时间，这种转移可能不会显著改变出口产品，但从长期来看，它将为越南提升劳动力技能、改善产品质量和提高生产率奠定坚实基础，推动国内制造业实现更加可持续的发展。.

越南政府的初步应对措施及其对企业的影响

越南政府迅速采取措施应对美国关税行动。在外交层面，越共中央总书记苏林与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普通电话，提议建立更加公平的双边税收机制 [11]. 与此同时，越南总理成立特别工作组，密切监测和评估影响，并提出适当策略，以主动适应美国经济和贸易政策的调整。谈判代表团以特使身份访问美国 of Party General Secretary To Lam to discuss bilateral economic and trade issues [12]. Deputy Prime Minister Ho Duc Phoc met with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer during this visit. The delegation achieved its first positive outcome as the U.S. agreed to initiate negotiations on a reciprocal trade agreement. This agreement will include provisions on tariffs and propose immediate exchanges between technical teams from both sides. Domestically, the government convened meetings with associations and export businesses to explore the possibility of reducing import tariffs on certain U.S. goods to balance trade and support businesses in maintaining their market presence. Vietnam’s proactive approach during the tariff suspension and negotiation period is deemed essential.

For businesses, domestic exporters must quickly implement adaptive measures to address the pressure from the U.S.’s reciprocal tariff. The top priority is market diversification—many textiles, furniture, and seafood enterprises have actively sought new customers in regions like the Middle East, Europe, and Japan to reduce dependence on the U.S. market, which accounts for a significant share of total export turnover. Simultaneously, businesses must enhance production optimization by tightly controlling input materials, improving product quality, and especially ensuring transparency in origin to meet increasingly stringent traceability requirements from the U.S. The high tariffs imposed by the U.S. also aim to curb Chinese goods disguised as Vietnamese exports to the U.S., making clear traceability of Vietnamese goods even more critical.

Although the ability of Chinese enterprises to shift production to Vietnam will benefit Vietnam’s domestic manufacturing economy, there are still some risks regarding the determination of product origin. The U.S. applies the principle of “Substantial Transformation” to assess whether a product qualifies as Vietnamese goods. If the manufacturing process in Vietnam does not create significant changes, the product may be considered Chinese goods and subjected to high retaliatory tariffs. China has clearly played a major role in Vietnam’s export boom to the U.S, from raw materials to finished products [2]. However, China is not the central story. Therefore, from a governmental perspective, Vietnam needs to actively promote technology transfer—not only for Chinese enterprises looking to invest in Vietnam but also for businesses from other countries—to enhance the depth of production within Vietnam. From a business perspective, enterprises need to diversify their sources of raw materials to comply with U.S. product evaluation principles. Vietnam can take advantage of this situation and increase investment capital to move up the value chain, gradually reducing dependence on foreign inputs.

结论

In conclusion, the recent escalation of U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese imports highlights significant challenges for the trade relationship between the two nations, despite their long-standing partnership. While Vietnam remains a vital export-oriented economy, these tariffs are poised to pressure key industries like textiles, furniture, and electronics, demanding swift adaptation and diversification efforts. At the same time, the move reinforces the U.S.’s strategic pivot toward domestic manufacturing and trade protectionism, which carries broader implications for global commerce. Vietnam’s proactive government measures and businesses’ resilience will be critical during this transitional period. The outcome will depend heavily on bilateral negotiations and collaborative efforts to address trade imbalances fairly.

[1] Phap Luat Doanh Nhan News. Nearly 120 billion USD of Vietnamese goods to the U.S. in 2024, electronics and textiles take a large share.

[2] Lowy Institute. Made in Vietnam or Backdoor Chinese Exports?

[3] NBC News. Trump tariffs: President announces 90-day pause – what to know.

[4] Reuters. US starts collecting Trump’s 10% tariff, smashing global trade norms.

[5] Vietnam Plus. The U.S. imposes a 46% tariff on some imported goods from Vietnam.

[6] SGGP. Trade between Vietnam and the U.S. in recent years.

[7] Vietnam Briefing. Understanding the US tariff list and its implications for Vietnam.

[8] VnEconomy. How does the U.S. calculate the 46% tariff on Vietnam?

[9] Thanh Tra. The U.S. imposes a 46% countervailing duty on Vietnamese goods, which sectors are most affected?

[10] U.S. Department of Commerce. Rules of Origin and Substantial Transformation.

[11] VnExpress. General Secretary Tô Lâm has a phone conversation with President Trump.

[12] VOV. Vietnam, the U.S. agree to start negotiations on a trade deal.

[13] VTV Online, ASEAN convenes special meeting on U.S. tax policy.

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