Vietnam-US trading value record 2020-2024

单位：亿美元

来源： 越南海关总署和工业贸易部

对越南的影响评估

美国收紧进口、加强保护主义的趋势不可逆转，因为这是美国重振国内制造业战略的一部分。对于出口导向型经济体越南来说，这种压力不可避免。

最初预计受该政策最直接负面影响的行业包括纺织品和鞋类、家具和室内装饰用品、海鲜、电子产品和零部件[9]. These sectors account for a significant proportion of Vietnam’s export turnover to the U.S., with many businesses heavily dependent on this market. Among them, textiles and footwear are considered the most sensitive, as the U.S. is currently the largest export market for companies in this field. The furniture and interior goods sector is also vulnerable, given the widespread presence of Vietnamese wood products in the U.S. market. Similarly, the electronics and components industry—known for its high export volume—faces risks of supply chain disruptions and order reductions if tariffs increase production costs.

Additionally, this information has significantly impacted the sentiment of foreign investors in Vietnam, particularly multinational companies producing goods for the U.S. market. The tariff hike, which causes a sudden increase in the cost of “Made in Vietnam” products, undermines price competitiveness, forcing businesses to reconsider maintaining, downsizing, or relocating part of their production lines to other countries in the region with lower or no tariffs. Based on the comparative reciprocal tariff rates, several regional countries might indeed become attractive alternatives for foreign investors looking to optimize costs, such as Singapore (10%), Philippines (17%), Malaysia (24%), Indonesia (32%), Thailand (36%) [13因此，受益于外商直接投资浪潮的工业房地产市场、工业园区基础设施和物流也可能受到间接影响，例如入住率下降、生产空间、仓库和物流服务需求下降。

However, this policy also has a positive impact on domestic production. Vietnam can take advantage of this time to develop its specialized manufacturing industry. Although China is currently the country facing the highest tariffs from the U.S., due to its geographic proximity and good diplomatic relations with Vietnam, it is considered a strategic destination for factories looking to avoid retaliatory tariffs when exporting to the U.S. The Trump administration places great importance on determining the origin of goods and applies the principle of “Substantial Transformation” to assess whether a product qualifies as the export country’s goods [10如果在越南的生产过程仅限于简单的加工或组装，产品的结构或功能未发生重大改变，美国仍可能将其视为中国产品，并征收高额报复性关税。然而，如果在越南的生产过程足够深入，导致产品的结构或功能发生明显改变，则该产品将被认定为越南产品，并可能享受较低的税率。

这对越南尤其有利，因为过去，越南主要以加工组装为主，而非专业制造。中国企业转移技术和先进生产工艺，有助于越南发展高价值产业，尤其是在电子、机械和纺织等领域。虽然短期内，由于需要时间适应，这种转移可能不会显著改变出口产品，但从长远来看，它将为越南提升劳动力技能、提高产品质量和生产力奠定坚实基础，从而促进国内制造业的可持续发展。

越南政府初步应对措施及对企业的影响

越南政府迅速采取措施应对美国关税行动。在外交方面，越共中央总书记苏林与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普通电话，提出建立更公平的双边税收机制的建议。11同时，总理成立了特别工作组，密切监测、评估影响并提出适当策略，积极应对美国经贸政策调整。谈判代表团以特使身份访问美国。 越共中央总书记苏林会见越南国家主席阮富仲 [12]. Deputy Prime Minister Ho Duc Phoc met with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer during this visit. The delegation achieved its first positive outcome as the U.S. agreed to initiate negotiations on a reciprocal trade agreement. This agreement will include provisions on tariffs and propose immediate exchanges between technical teams from both sides. Domestically, the government convened meetings with associations and export businesses to explore the possibility of reducing import tariffs on certain U.S. goods to balance trade and support businesses in maintaining their market presence. Vietnam’s proactive approach during the tariff suspension and negotiation period is deemed essential.

For businesses, domestic exporters must quickly implement adaptive measures to address the pressure from the U.S.’s reciprocal tariff. The top priority is market diversification—many textiles, furniture, and seafood enterprises have actively sought new customers in regions like the Middle East, Europe, and Japan to reduce dependence on the U.S. market, which accounts for a significant share of total export turnover. Simultaneously, businesses must enhance production optimization by tightly controlling input materials, improving product quality, and especially ensuring transparency in origin to meet increasingly stringent traceability requirements from the U.S. The high tariffs imposed by the U.S. also aim to curb Chinese goods disguised as Vietnamese exports to the U.S., making clear traceability of Vietnamese goods even more critical.

Although the ability of Chinese enterprises to shift production to Vietnam will benefit Vietnam’s domestic manufacturing economy, there are still some risks regarding the determination of product origin. The U.S. applies the principle of “Substantial Transformation” to assess whether a product qualifies as Vietnamese goods. If the manufacturing process in Vietnam does not create significant changes, the product may be considered Chinese goods and subjected to high retaliatory tariffs. China has clearly played a major role in Vietnam’s export boom to the U.S, from raw materials to finished products [2然而，中国并非故事的核心。因此，从政府角度来看，越南需要积极推动技术转移——不仅针对有意在越南投资的中国企业，也包括其他国家的企业——以提升越南国内的生产深度。从企业角度来看，企业需要实现原材料来源多元化，以符合美国产品评估原则。越南可以利用这一优势，增加投资资本，提升价值链，逐步减少对外国投入的依赖。

结论

In conclusion, the recent escalation of U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese imports highlights significant challenges for the trade relationship between the two nations, despite their long-standing partnership. While Vietnam remains a vital export-oriented economy, these tariffs are poised to pressure key industries like textiles, furniture, and electronics, demanding swift adaptation and diversification efforts. At the same time, the move reinforces the U.S.’s strategic pivot toward domestic manufacturing and trade protectionism, which carries broader implications for global commerce. Vietnam’s proactive government measures and businesses’ resilience will be critical during this transitional period. The outcome will depend heavily on bilateral negotiations and collaborative efforts to address trade imbalances fairly.

[1] Phap Luat Doanh Nhan 新闻。 2024年越南对美出口额将近1200亿美元，电子产品和纺织品占比很大.

[2] 洛伊研究所。 越南制造还是中国后门出口？

[3] NBC新闻。 特朗普关税： 总统宣布暂停90天——需要了解的信息.

[4] 路透社。 US starts collecting Trump’s 10% tariff, smashing global trade norms.

[5] 越南Plus. 美国对越南部分进口商品征收46%关税.

[6] SGGP。 近年来越南与美国的贸易。

[7]越南简报。 了解美国关税清单及其对越南的影响。

[8] 越南经济. 美国对越南征收46%关税如何计算？

[9] 谭茶。 美国对越南产品征收46%反补贴税，哪些行业受影响最大？

[10] 美国商务部。 原产地规则和实质性转变.

[11] 越南快报. 杜兰总书记与特朗普总统通电话。

[12]越南社会主义共和国。 越南， 美国同意启动贸易协议谈判.

[13] 越南电视台在线, 东盟召开美国税收政策特别会议.

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