海鲜行业受到的冲击可能最大，因为它依赖于冷链的稳定性、冷藏集装箱的可用性和及时交付。更高的运费、集装箱短缺和更长的运输时间都会增加海鲜变质或降价的风险。新鲜水果出口商也面临类似的挑战，因为更长的航程会缩短保质期，导致货物被拒收。

相比之下，咖啡、胡椒、腰果和一些加工食品由于保质期长、价值高，可能更具韧性。然而，它们也并非完全不受冲击，因为更高的运费、保险费和营运资金需求将继续给出口商带来压力。

企业案例研究揭示了痛点所在。

越南企业已经感受到了这种影响。

– Simexco DakLak said war-risk insurance had increased by up to USD 2,000 per container. Although the Middle East accounts for only about 8% of its coffee export revenue, it takes 18% of its pepper exports, making this segment more vulnerable. The company has suspended new orders to the region, asked buyers to speed up payment, and recalled some shipments to reduce risk.

– Vina T&T Group has pointed to growing risks for fresh fruit exports. With limited shelf life, longer transit times increase the chance of spoilage, rejection, or price cuts. In response, the company has shifted to fully controlled refrigerated containers, expanded cold storage, and negotiated loss-sharing arrangements with buyers, though these measures also raise costs.

– Transimex has also reported significant disruption. Since 40–50% of its cargo flows pass through the Middle East en route to Europe and the U.S. East Coast, route suspensions and shipment cancellations have forced the company to move goods back into storage and wait for alternative sailings. Higher fuel prices are also adding pressure across freight, insurance, and warehousing.

– In seafood, the main concern is profitability rather than market loss. Godaco Seafood said direct exposure to the Middle East remains limited, but rising fuel prices are pushing up transport, farming, and processing costs.

越南股市对这些风险反应强烈。分析人士认为，市场反应反映了对通胀加剧、货币政策收紧、货运成本上涨以及对燃料价格敏感型和出口导向型行业增长预期疲软的担忧。在农产品、海产品和物流领域，上市公司已经显露出明显的压力。

一些主要农产品和海产品行业的公司市值

单位：十亿越南盾

来源：Vietstock

颠覆性变革也创造了选择性机遇。

情况并非完全是负面的。这场冲突在扰乱传统供应链的同时，也促使一些海外买家寻找替代供应商。据越南通讯社VietnamPlus报道，在最近的地缘政治紧张局势之后，Dawnsky的农产品出口订单增长了近十倍，尤其是来自中东和欧洲市场的订单。越南投资评论（VIR）的另一位消息人士指出，由于进口商寻求替代来自中东和邻国的供应中断产品，欧洲对新鲜农产品的需求急剧上升。这些例子表明，战争并非简单地消除需求，而是将订单重新分配给那些行动最快、物流管理最灵活的出口商。

对越南而言，这是一个重要的区别。冲突是一场负面的宏观冲击，但它也可能在微观层面催生出赢家。拥有强大的分销网络、多元化的运输路线选择以及重新谈判运费能力的出口商，即使总体成本上升，有时也能获得市场份额。换句话说，挑战不在于全球需求是否存在，而在于哪些企业仍能盈利地满足这些需求。

结论

总之，美伊战争对越南农产品和海产品行业的冲击，与其说是中东需求的直接崩溃，不如说是物流、保险、燃料和保鲜成本的全面上涨。海产品和新鲜农产品面临的风险最大，因为它们对时间要求最高，且最依赖冷链。然而，这场危机也为反应敏捷的越南出口商创造了一些机遇，使他们能够抓住欧洲和部分海湾市场的替代需求。因此，关键的政策和商业挑战并非仅仅是“承受”冲击，而是要比竞争对手更快地做出反应。

阅读更多 

研究美伊关系对越南市场的影响

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[1] https://vietnamnews.vn/economy/1767150/agriculture-sector-develops-scenarios-to-respond-to-export-risks.html

[2] https://wtocenter.vn/chuyen-de/29802-middle-east-tensions-push-up-logistics-costs-for-viet-nam-exports