Beneath headline growth, however, the market showed clear signs of strain: more than 30,000 outlets closed in the first half of the year, full-year growth slowed to just 1.8 per cent (below the 3 per cent of 2023), and only 40 per cent of businesses reported stable or rising revenues.

The downturn is not universal. Large restaurant chains and fast-food brands continue to expand, intensifying pressure on smaller limited-service operators and street vendors. We view these dynamics as a natural consolidation in a maturing market, driven by multiple pressures hitting different segments in different ways.

One key reason is oversaturation in prime urban areas. Too many brands have been vying for the same customers in major cities, leading to stiff competition and falling average sales per store. At the same time, operating costs such as rent, wages, raw materials have been rising, squeezing margins and forcing weaker operators out of the market. For example, rental rates jumped year over year, compressing margins and forcing some franchisees to rethink footprints or exit entirely.

There’s also demand-side nuance. Dining out in Vietnam remains vibrant, but customers are more value-attentive and more selective about experience and food quality. In practice, brands that fail to consistently deliver on this new standard are quickly losing customer loyalty.

Three shifts stand out in our fieldwork. Firstly, value for money has become a non-negotiable. Consumers did not stop eating out; they became more deliberate. They still want to meet friends for coffee or grab a quick bite, but they expect clear value, portion fairness, beverage quality, and a tidy, comfortable space. That is one reason mass-market coffee, tea, and bakery formats keep drawing footfall, while “average-but-pricey” propositions struggle.

Secondly, health-minded choices are translating from talk into basket. We see a lasting shift towards health and wellness. Since the pandemic, more people are paying attention to nutrition, hygiene, and lighter eating. Vegetarian meals, plant-based dishes, and “clean” menus are no longer niche, they’re becoming part of the mainstream.

In fact, a B&Company survey of 400 respondents in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City in 2024 showed that 22 per cent follow a clean eating diet, 20 per cent practice intermittent fasting, and 10 per cent adopt a low-carb regimen, clear signs that healthier lifestyles are shaping actual consumption patterns.

Third is digital convenience as habit, not a pandemic blip. Delivery platforms, first-party ordering, loyalty apps, and cashless payment are now the default for younger urban consumers. Even dine-in-led brands treat delivery as a steady source of income, not just a hedge.

And if you zoom out to modern retail, the cycle of convenience stores reinforces the same lifestyle drivers, such urban time pressure, frequent and urgent needs, and comfort with modern formats, which in turn influence what consumers expect from F&B on speed, cleanliness, and consistency.

When we look at chains that kept positive growth through the recent market shake-out, three disciplines have recurred.

The primary factor is operational consistency. Successful brands are masters of the basics – they invest heavily in perfecting their day-to-day operations, from efficient kitchen workflows and food safety standards to thorough staff training. This focus on consistent execution means customers know exactly what to expect, which builds trust and encourages repeat visits. Their reputation does not rely on constant promotions; it is built on reliability.

Equally important is digital and brand relevance. The strongest chains are fluent in delivery economics and loyalty mechanics, but they are also alive to culture, how Gen Z photographs a drink, why a seasonal flavour works, what tone to take on social. Tech-savvy brands with mobile apps, active social media, and integration with delivery platforms capture more market share.

Underneath those two, menu evolution is constant. We see chains win by keeping their menus and concepts fresh. They adapt to local tastes and emerging trends (such as introducing healthier options or novel flavours) to stay relevant. In saturated categories like coffee or milk tea, differentiation through storytelling or niche positioning is key. This agility in product development helps maintain customer interest.

We remain optimistic about Vietnam’s F&B outlook over the next few years. Our compilation shows the sector expanded at a strong 7.6 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2021 and 2024, and while growth is expected to moderate, the projected CAGR of 9.1 per cent for 2025–2028 signals that while overall demand will keep growing alongside the economy, the growth story is becoming more selective. Investors will find opportunity, but they need to be disciplined and align with the new consumer priorities.