越南经济规模“增长”接近日本

154 月2024

B&Company

In 2010, Vietnam’s GDP was one-38th of Japan’s. By 2020, it was about 14 times higher, and by 2022, it will be closer to 12 times higher. This time, we decided to compare this in terms of “growth”. This is because “how new demand will be created” is often more important when companies consider their future activities.

Looking at real GDP, Vietnam has shown steady growth between 2010 and 2022, with annual fluctuations, while Japan’s growth has been more uneven. In addition to Corona, Japan was negative in U.S. dollar terms three times, including in 2020 when the yen weakened. As a result, over the 12-year period, Japan’s growth was about 499 billion USD while Vietnam’s was about 296 billion USD, about 60% of Japan’s, or the same order of magnitude in terms of “growth”. About 23% of this GDP “growth” came from FDI firms. Although foreign investment by enterprises is not aimed at adding value, it does represent a certain level of results in terms of the transfer of business activities.

现在，已经进入该市场的日本企业约有 2,900 家，大约每 1,000 家日本企业中就有一家进入该市场。与国内企业相比，其平均销售额大约高出 5 倍。虽然扩张存在困难和风险，而且与外国企业的竞争通常也很激烈，但在许多情况下，其成果可谓比留在日本更大。

Similar “growth” comparisons can be made for national income and retail sales. Here we show the results for national income. Japan’s “growth” was still relatively large, about three times that of Vietnam.

Next is the unit of local government. Since Tokyo is too large, we compared other prefectures and Vietnam’s two largest cities. Among several confirmed examples are Fukuoka and Miyagi prefectures, which represent Kyushu and Tohoku, respectively. The size of the growth potential of the economic zone including Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City and their surroundings was confirmed. In Japan, Miyagi Prefecture had the momentum, but the “growth” of each province and city in Vietnam was greater. (Yearly breakdowns are abbreviated in the following graphs.)

Finally, let’s look at industry. Of course, this is only a guide, as the lines of classification are not the same from country to country.

Agriculture is also likely to reverse, not in “growth” but in overall value, as Japan is not growing. The manufacturing and distribution sectors are also not many times larger than Japan’s, but are in the same order of magnitude. Vietnam is no longer too “small” for Japanese companies except for the very large ones