Vietnam Macroeconomic report 2025: Strategic turning points amid global volatility

28Apr2026

B&Company

B&Company is the first Japanese company specializing in market research and investment consulting in Vietnam since 2008.

In this section “Vietnam Briefing”, young researchers of B&Company will provide timely information of Vietnam’s industrial trends, consumer trends, and social movements.

This article is written in English and automatic translation is used for other language versions. Please refer to the English version for accurate content. Although we strive to ensure the accuracy of the original information, please check separately for each information. Interpretations and future prospects are the personal opinions of each researcher.

In 2025, Vietnam reached a key milestone as the final year of the 2021–2025 Socio-Economic Development Plan, achieving strong growth despite global volatility. GDP growth was robust, total trade approached a record USD 930 billion, and the country officially began its stock market upgrade process. This pivotal year laid a solid foundation for sustained double-digit growth in 2021–2030.[1]¹

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth: strong and sustained recovery

Q4 2025 GDP grew an estimated 8.46% year-on-year, the highest Q4 rate in 2011–2025. Full-year growth reached approximately 8.0%, exceeding the National Assembly’s target and reinforcing the country’s position among Southeast Asia’s fastest-growing economies.[2]

Quarterly GDP growth trends in 2025

Indicator	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	FY2025
GDP growth (%)	6.93	7.96	8.23	8.46	8.02
Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries (%)	3.74	3.89	3.74	3.70	3.78
Industry and construction (%)	7.42	8.97	9.46	9.73	8.95
Services (%)	7.70	8.46	8.56	8.82	8.62

Source: National Statistics Office (NSO)

Industrial and Construction Sector: A Key Driver of Growth

In 2025, the industrial and construction sector remained the main driver of GDP. Manufacturing, particularly in electronics, computers, and optical products, sustained strong growth.[3] This expansion was supported by a front-loading strategy to accelerate production and exports, mitigating tariff risks and global supply chain disruptions.[4]

Value-added structure of the industry and construction sectors in 2025

Primary Industry Categories	Q1	H1	9M	FY2025
Total Industry (%)	7.32	8.07	8.55	8.80
Manufacturing & Processing (%)	9.28	10.11	9.92	9.97
Electricity Production & Distribution (%)	4.60	4.20	Not specific	6.39
Construction (%)	7.99	9.62	9.33	9.62

Source: NSO

The construction sector grew by a record 9.62% in Q4 2025, contributing 8.47% to total economic value-added growth.^2[5] Growth is primarily driven by accelerated national strategic infrastructure projects. Completing 3,803 km of expressways and key coastal roads by end-2025 will generate substantial construction demand while enabling new industrial and urban development along economic corridors.[6]

Service Sector: Strong Growth and Diversification

In 2025, the service sector grew by 8.62%, driven by a broad recovery in traditional industries and strong expansion in digital-related services. Trade and tourism led growth, with international arrivals reaching a record high, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, supported by flexible visa policies, tourism promotion, and socio-political stability. High value-added services also contributed, with wholesale and retail up 8.28%, transportation and warehousing rising 10.68% due to strong logistics demand, and finance, banking, and insurance increasing 7.06%, reflecting capital market recovery and rising business credit demand.[7]

The rapid growth of the digital economy and e-commerce has introduced new services, from cashless payments to last-mile delivery. Comprehensive national digital transformation has reduced transaction costs, improved user experience, and supported steady domestic consumption despite inflationary pressures.

Foreign Trade: Record $930 Billion and Historic Tariff Negotiations with the United States

Total trade reached USD 930.06 billion (+18.2%), placing Vietnam among the top 25 global trading economies.[8]

Trade Structure (2025)

Indicator	Value (USD bn)	Growth (%)
Total trade	930.07	18.20
Exports	475.06	17.00
Imports	455.01	19.40
Trade balance	20.05	–

Source: Vietnam Customs

The United States remained Vietnam’s largest export market, while China was the largest import source.[9] However, in April 2025, the U.S. imposed reciprocal tariffs of up to 46% on Vietnamese goods.[10] In response, Vietnam engaged in high-level negotiations. By October 2025, both countries issued a Joint Statement on a Fair and Balanced Reciprocal Trade Agreement Framework. The U.S. agreed to maintain a 20% tariff on most goods, while granting 0% tariffs to selected strategic products such as agricultural goods, semiconductors, and essential minerals.[11] This compromise helped sustain export growth while elevating bilateral relations and supporting more sustainable market restructuring.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Quality over Quantity

FDI inflows remained a bright spot in 2025. Total registered capital reached over USD 38.4 billion (+0.5%), while disbursed capital hit a record USD 27.62 billion (+9%), the highest in five years, reflecting strong investor confidence.[12]

Top 5 FDI Partners in 2025

Partner	Registered Capital (USD bn)	Growth vs. 2024 (%)
Singapore	9.40	-8.00
China	5.70	+20.40
South Korea	5.29	-25.00
Japan	3.73	+6.60
Hong Kong	3.13	-28.00

Source: Foreign Investment Agency

Ho Chi Minh City led with over USD 7 billion in registered capital (18.4% of the national total, +5.8% YoY), followed by Bac Ninh with nearly USD 5.7 billion (14.8%) and Hanoi with over USD 4.4 billion (11.5%). Dong Nai, Tay Ninh, and Hai Phong ranked next.[13]

Public Investment: Growth Driven by Institutional Reform

Public investment disbursement reached VND 755.1 trillion by end-2025 (83.7% of the plan). Although below 100% in percentage terms, the absolute increase of over VND 206.5 trillion compared to 2024 reflects a significant expansion in scale, supporting economic growth momentum.[14]

Monetary Policy: Balancing Inflation and Exchange Rate Pressures

Interest Rates and Liquidity

Deposit rates rose slightly due to a gap between credit growth (19%) and deposit growth (15.4%). Limited external liquidity made state treasury funds a key support for the banking system.[15]

In December 2025, the State Bank of Vietnam raised the OMO rate to 4.5%—the first increase in over 14 months—signaling a more cautious policy stance.[16]

Exchange Rate Pressure and Intervention

The USD/VND exchange rate faced pressure from a strong USD and interest rate differentials. The central bank used tools such as FX swaps and interventions to stabilize the market. Despite some fluctuations, the VND remained relatively stable, supporting export competitiveness and investor confidence.[17]

Financial and Stock Market: Historic Upgrade Path

In October 2025, FTSE Russell confirmed Vietnam’s upgrade path from “Frontier Market” to “Secondary Emerging Market.” This milestone reflects sustained institutional reforms, including the removal of pre-funding requirements for foreign investors.[18]

Inflation and Prices: Controlled Below Target

Average CPI rose by 3.31% in 2025, below the National Assembly’s 4.5% target. Core inflation remained at 3.21%, reflecting effective coordination between monetary and fiscal policies.[19]

Public Finance and Budget

State budget revenue exceeded VND 2.65 quadrillion, surpassing estimates by 34.7% and increasing nearly 30% year-on-year. This reflects a strong economic recovery and effective fiscal management.

Tax and fee reductions totaling approximately VND 251 trillion were implemented to support businesses. The budget surplus reached around 1.9% of GDP, reducing public debt pressure and creating room for future stimulus. Public debt remained within safe limits.[20]

Conclusion

In 2025, Vietnam successfully achieved its strategic objectives, demonstrating resilience and adaptability. The successful resolution of U.S. tariff challenges through a reciprocal trade agreement highlights the country’s effective negotiation strategy and economic diversification approach.

Summary of FDI situation in Vietnam in 2025 and outlook for 2026

Japanese FDI in Vietnam 2025: Highest profit outlook in 15 years – Is expansion next?

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[1] https://media.eximbank.com.vn/exim/files/20250416%20-%20EIB%20-%20Bao%20cao%20thuong%20nien%20nam%202024.pdf

[2] https://www.nso.gov.vn/tin-tuc-thong-ke/2026/01/thong-cao-bao-chi-tinh-hinh-kinh-te-xa-hoi-quy-iv-va-nam-2025/

[3] https://www.nso.gov.vn/tin-tuc-thong-ke/2026/01/thong-cao-bao-chi-tinh-hinh-kinh-te-xa-hoi-quy-iv-va-nam-2025/

[4] https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/1135881/vie-ado-april-2026.pdf

[5] https://www.nso.gov.vn/tin-tuc-thong-ke/2026/01/thong-cao-bao-chi-tinh-hinh-kinh-te-xa-hoi-quy-iv-va-nam-2025/

[6] https://thoibaotaichinhvietnam.vn/giai-ngan-dau-tu-cong-2025-cham-moc-ky-luc-dong-luc-tang-truong-duoc-kich-hoat-tu-cai-cach-the-che-195016.html

[7] https://www.pwc.com/vn/en/publications/2025/vn-economic-update-9m2025.pdf

[8] https://daibieunhandan.vn/xuat-nhap-khau-viet-nam-can-moc-900-ty-usd-vao-top-25-the-gioi-10401847.html

[9] https://www.pwc.com/vn/en/publications/2025/vn-economic-update-9m2025.pdf

[10] https://daibieunhandan.vn/hoa-ky-ap-thue-doi-ung-tac-dong-den-viet-nam-va-kien-nghi-10363824.html