Operational pressure in the logistics sector is also becoming more visible. Some truck drivers have reportedly left the market as higher fuel costs reduce profitability. At the same time, transport demand remains high as companies attempt to secure goods and manage inventories ahead of potential price adjustments. This combination of rising costs and labor shortages may create additional bottlenecks in domestic distribution, making logistics not only more expensive but also less predictable.

International transport is also facing higher costs. Rising oil prices increase bunker fuel costs for shipping and aviation fuel costs for air freight. For Vietnam, this is especially relevant for industries such as electronics, garments, and furniture, which rely heavily on efficient international logistics to maintain competitiveness in export markets.

Upstream supply chain pressure may come through China

Vietnam may also experience indirect pressure through regional supply chains, particularly through China. Because China depends heavily on energy flows linked to the Strait of Hormuz, disruptions in the Middle East can raise its energy costs and production expenses. This may lead to higher export prices for goods shipped from China to Vietnam, including electronics components, machinery, plastics, and textile-related inputs.

For Vietnamese manufacturers, this creates an additional cost layer. The conflict may not only increase domestic fuel and logistics costs but also raise the price of imported intermediate goods. Businesses that depend heavily on imported materials could therefore face declining margins, particularly in industries where price competition remains intense.

Early signs of precautionary purchasing behavior have also emerged. Some factories and companies have accelerated orders and accepted higher prices to secure supply amid concerns about future shortages or transportation disruptions. This behavior may amplify short-term volatility in input markets, particularly for materials linked to oil-based production such as packaging plastics.

Government measures aim to stabilize the fuel market

To reduce the domestic impact of fuel price volatility, the Vietnamese government has introduced several stabilizing measures. These include temporary reductions in petroleum import taxes, use of the fuel price stabilization fund, and efforts to diversify supply sources. At the same time, the government is promoting the development of biofuels such as E5 and E10 gasoline as part of a broader strategy to reduce long-term dependence on conventional fossil fuels.

These measures aim to ease short-term price pressure while improving the resilience of the domestic energy system. Although external shocks cannot be fully avoided, policy adjustments may help limit the impact on fuel prices, logistics costs, and inflation expectations.

Conclusion

Overall, the US–Iran conflict is more likely to affect Vietnam through indirect economic channels than through direct trade disruption. Rising oil prices appear to be the central risk, with knock-on effects on inflation, logistics costs, and imported input prices. In the short term, industries with high transport intensity and strong dependence on imported materials are likely to be the most exposed. For businesses operating in Vietnam, managing cost volatility and supply chain risks may therefore become a key priority in the current environment.

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