Vietnam’s digital economy is at a turning point[1]. The market size is expected to reach approximately 36 billion USD in 2024[2], accounting for over 18 % of GDP[3]. It is estimated that the GDP will expand to between USD 45 billion and USD 52 billion by 2025, accounting for around 25 % of GDP[4]. Furthermore, the target is to reach USD 90 billion by 2030, making it clear that digital will play a central role in the country’s growth strategy[5]. However, this growth is concentrated in core sectors such as e-commerce, fintech, and logistics, and structural restructuring is inevitable for sustainable development.

Growth of Vietnam’s digital economy

Source: e-Conomy SEA 2024, Ministry of Information and Communications (MIC)

E-commerce: Tax reform challenges growth

E-commerce remains the largest growth engine, accounting for approximately 60% of the total market (approximately USD 22 billion) by 2024[6]. Shopee, Lazada, and TikTok Shop are increasing their presence, with the growth rate reaching approximately 20% compared to the previous year[7].

However, a new government ordinance that will come into effect in July 2025 will require platform operators to pay tax on their behalf. This could lead to millions of small sellers withdrawing due to the increased burden. Large operators are expected to shift to corporate sellers while improving tax support tools, which will significantly change the industry structure.

Fintech: Sustaining growth requires restructuring the model

The number of e-wallet users is expected to reach 50 million by mid-2024, an increase of approximately 40% year-on-year[8]. MoMo (with a transaction share of approximately 68%) will maintain its leading position, followed by ZaloPay (about 53%)[9]. However, aggressive promotional expenses are putting pressure on profits, and many operators are still operating at a loss.

Furthermore, they will be forced to respond to intensifying competition with banking apps (VCB, Digibank, Techcombank, MB Bank, etc.) and stricter regulations. Growth based on traditional cashback schemes is reaching its limits, and personalized finance and vertical integration with insurance and asset management will be the key to their next revenue model.

Logistics: Decarbonization pressures drive business restructuring

The logistics sector continues to grow as the foundation of e-commerce, with related GMV reaching USD 21 billion in 2024[10]. However, environmental measures are urgently needed to achieve the government’s goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2050.