Pressure from Load Growth and Supply-Demand Imbalances in Power Transmission

Vietnam’s power system is under severe pressure as electricity consumption grew by over 10% in 2024, necessitating an 11.3% increase in the supply plan for 2025. However, a significant paradox persists: while the total installed capacity is nearly 85,000 MW, the actual peak load only reached 51,672 MW in the first six months of 2025 [1]. This gap is not a safe reserve margin but rather an indication of the low availability of many power sources, which cannot be effectively dispatched when needed, creating a risk of localized power shortages in major economic centers.

The highest capacity of Vietnam’s power transmission system each year

Source: EVN

While demand soars, transmission infrastructure development has failed to keep pace, creating a significant “bottleneck effect.” Data from 2024 shows that the power sector completed only 64.5% of its planned grid projects [2]. The main causes are obstacles in planning and policy mechanisms, as the Power Development Plan VIII (PDP8) does not clearly define project locations and required land areas [3]. This makes it difficult for local authorities to approve investments and conduct site clearance, thereby delaying the progress of key projects.

This disparity between the load growth rate (over 10%) and the infrastructure completion rate (around 65%) is causing existing transmission lines and substations to frequently operate at or near their overload thresholds. This condition not only increases power losses and reduces equipment lifespan but also directly elevates the risk of widespread outages, threatening national energy security.

Current Progress of Grid Digitalization in Vietnam

EVN (Vietnam Electricity) has pioneered digital transformation with a systematic strategy, setting the goal of becoming a digital enterprise by 2025 [4]. This roadmap is divided into three phases:

– Phase 1 (Digitization): Focused on maximizing the digitization of individual activities within each functional department. This phase has been largely completed, resulting in the creation of numerous specialized Information Technology (IT) systems such as ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning), CMIS (Customer Information Management System), PMIS (Power-grid Management Information System), OMS (Outage Management System), and more.

– Phase 2 (Integration): This is EVN’s current phase, which concentrates on integrating the currently fragmented IT systems to improve operational efficiency and create data interoperability between departments.

– Phase 3 (Data Exploitation and New Technologies): The future phase aims to leverage the power of Big Data and new technologies like AI, IoT, and Cloud to create breakthrough business and operational models, such as predictive maintenance or forecasting for distributed renewable energy.

These efforts have yielded significant achievements. Operationally, EVN has automated 100% of its 110-220kV substations, turning them into unmanned facilities [5]. In terms of services, 100% of electricity services are provided online, with the cashless payment rate reaching 99.67% and electronic contracts at 99.15% [6].

EVN’s greatest challenge at present is an internal barrier related to its systems and data [7]. The corporation is facing a “data silo” situation, where core information systems like ERP, CMIS, and PMIS were built separately and are now fragmented and disconnected. This prevents the creation of a comprehensive, 360-degree view of the entire grid’s operations.

The primary roles of “main contractor” and system integrator are being undertaken by leading Vietnamese IT companies such as FPT Information System (FPT IS) and Viettel Solutions [8,9]. Their task is to survey, design, and implement comprehensive solutions to connect these disparate systems. Supporting them are global technology firms like Siemens, Schneider Electric, SAP, and Oracle, which provide the core technologies and technical solutions to help the integration process proceed effectively.

기회

This overhaul of the data foundation, combined with the grid’s inherent operational challenges, is opening a vast service market for new entrants—entities that have the advantage of flexibility and specialization.

Specialized AI and Data Analytics Services: Once the data platform is unified, EVN will possess a “gold mine” of data and will need an “engine” to exploit it. This gap opens opportunities for companies to provide “Analytics-as-a-Service,” building custom AI models to solve specialized operational problems.

Opportunity from “Load Pressure”: Becoming a Demand Response (DR) Aggregator to solve the load pressure problem, solutions like Demand Response (DR) are inevitable. New entrants can become DR Aggregators, acting as intermediaries to connect EVN with industrial customers, managing load curtailment, and sharing the economic benefits. They can apply advanced tools like Real-time Pricing to create strong market signals.

Opportunity from the “Bottleneck Effect”: Building a Virtual Power Plant (VPP). As the grid infrastructure is overloaded by the boom in distributed energy, the opportunity here is to develop a Virtual Power Plant (VPP) platform, using AI/IoT to aggregate thousands of rooftop solar systems, battery storage units, and EV chargers, controlling them as if they were a single, conventional power plant to sell essential services to the grid.

Opportunity from “Successful Service Digitization”: A Value-Added Service Layer for Customers. EVN has collected vast amounts of data from smart meters, but has only used it for billing. This gap presents an opportunity to develop Energy Management System (EMS) platforms, providing applications that help customers analyze their consumption data and receive cost-saving recommendations, creating a layer of value-added services on top of the power sector’s own infrastructure.

결론

Vietnam’s power system is facing a dual challenge: meeting continuously increasing load demand while ensuring stability amid the large-scale penetration of variable renewable energy. The core barrier at present is not a lack of technology, but the state of data being fragmented and isolated in separate systems. This situation severely impairs the ability to synthesize information for optimal operational decision-making across the entire system, a challenge further exacerbated by the shortage of high-quality human resources capable of in-depth data exploitation. Therefore, the foundational and urgent solution is to build a unified data architecture while establishing a strict, industry-wide data governance framework. The successful implementation of this strategy will be the lever to accelerate the transition to a smart grid capable of forecasting and self-optimization, thereby transforming the power system from a potential risk factor into a strategic driver for sustainable economic development.

[1] EVN, Operational performance in first half of 2025; objectives and tasks for July 2025 <입장>

[2] Finance and Investment News, Urging rapid implementation of power projects <입장>

[3] Decision No. 768/QD-TTg of the Prime Minister: Approving the Adjustment of the National Power Development Plan for the 2021 – 2030 period, with a vision to 2050 <입장>

[4] EVN, EVN digital transformation – an inevitable journey <입장>

[5] EVN, Discover the typical construction models, products, and achievements brought by EVN to the National Achievements Exhibition <입장>

[6] EVN, EVN digital transformation: Improving operational efficiency, serving customers better <입장>

[7] EVN, Trends – Challenges – Digital transformation solutions in the Electricity industry <입장>

[8] EVN, EVNHCMC, and FPT sign consulting contract to build digital transformation roadmap <입장>

[9] EVN, EVNSPC, and Viettel sign cooperation agreement to promote digital transformation <입장>