越南汽车业正处于转折点

156 月2021

B&Company

概述

Vietnam’s automotive industry takes on the challenge of domestic production

越南汽车市场规模曾被认为相对较小，并被许多日本制造商忽视。当时有强烈的观点认为，东盟各国之间的贸易自由化将使越南的汽车行业变得不必要。然而，越南对汽车的需求最近一直在上升。这是否是制造基地增长的潜在驱动因素？

到访越南的日本游客仍对成群的摩托车印象深刻。2018 年，越南的汽车拥有率为每 100 人 2.3 辆，远低于泰国（20.4 辆）或日本、美国和欧洲（超过 50 辆）。其中一个障碍是税收，乘用车销量一直停滞不前，每年不到 10 万辆。然而，近年来，随着收入的增加、贸易自由化和税率的降低，越南的市场迅速扩大，2020 年达到 20 万辆，约占泰国乘用车销量的一半（如果加上商用车，则超过 40 万辆，而泰国约为 80 万辆）。目前，两个最大的城市（河内和胡志明市）处于领先地位，乘用车保有量为 45%，但这种趋势可能会在全国范围内更加普遍。 2020年是新冠疫情爆发的一年，泰国和印尼的销量分别下降了约20%和50%，而越南的销量则保持稳定在8%左右。具体来说，2021年4月出现了强劲复苏，与去年同期相比增长了2.5倍。

越南乘用车销量（万辆）

来源：越南汽车协会 (VAMA)、越南海关、贸易地图

Vietnam has also become a manufacturing hub in ASEAN, with Vinfast (a car manufacturer under Vietnam’s largest conglomerate Vingroup) starting its car production since 2019, launching 12 models, including the e34 EV due for market by the end of 2021. The production has been on track. However, the rate of domestic procurement of parts is only 10-20%, which results in higher cost than that of neighboring countries. The company has therefore set out a plan to increase its domestic procurement rate and increase its annual production from the current 250,000 units to 500,000 units by 2025. Other domestic players, such as Thaco and Thanh Cong Group, are also likely to follow suit, while Japanese and Korean manufacturers with large market share (Toyota, Hyundai, etc.) are likely to enhance their procurement in Vietnam as part of the ASEAN transition of labor.

另一方面，政府与行业协会正计划将国内采购率提高至40%，并出口整车。政府设定了年产100万辆、年销售90万辆、每百人年保有量5辆、零部件供应商超过1000家、高速公路5000公里的目标，并借新冠疫情后中国制造基地转移之机，打造汽车社会。

2018年汽车行业占GDP的3%，与德国4%、中国5%、泰国12%相比，高得惊人。例如，年产量50万辆，平均售价4亿越南盾，已经是一个市场规模约209万亿越南盾的大型产业。提高国内采购率，将附加值投放到国内市场是当务之急。至于基础产业，电子行业取得了巨大飞跃，零部件和材料行业也在增长。

Only about three years ago, when Vingroup asked for cooperation to set up a car industry within a year, many Japanese manufacturers turned the offer down. They thought that Vingroup had been successful in retail and real estate, but would not in cars. As a result, Japanese companies have lost the opportunity to collaborate. The mindset of many Vietnamese entrepreneurs today is that “we can catch up with the developed countries if we take the right steps and don’t give up, because there is a big gap between us and them”.

设计资源: