Source: giaothuong.congthuong.vn

Challenges for Vietnam’s Rubber Export

a. Vietnam’s Heavy Reliance on the Chinese Market

China remains Vietnam’s most important rubber export destination, accounting for 72% of export volume and 71% of revenue in 2024. In 2024, Vietnam shipped nearly 1.5 million tons of rubber to China, worth approximately USD 2.4 billion ([8]).

However, the competition in China and globally is intensifying. Thailand remains China’s top rubber supplier, exporting more than 750,000 tons in the first quarter of 2025—up 27.6% from the same period last year—and making up 34.4% of China’s total rubber imports. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s share has fallen significantly. During the same period, Vietnam exported 342,165 tons to China—a 12.5% decrease compared to Q1/2024. Its market share fell to 16.1%, down from 22.3%, signaling mounting competitive pressure.

Despite Vietnam’s close geographic and trade ties with China, the structure of its rubber exports presents a strategic weakness. The bulk of its rubber exports consist of raw or minimally processed natural rubber and blended rubber. In Q1/2025, Vietnam exported over 238,500 tons of this blend, worth nearly USD 467 million—99.8% of which went to China. While this product category accounts for a growing share of total rubber exports (rising from 56.8% to 63.3%), it also reflects Vietnam’s heavy reliance on low-value-added goods.

b. Rising Regulation Pressure

Another challenge for Vietnam’s rubber market is the EU’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), taking effect in December 2024. The policy presents significant hurdles due to Vietnam’s heavy reliance on rubber imports from Cambodia which is over 64% of its total imports—where traceability is difficult to ensure. Most rubber is produced by smallholder farmers who often lack the legal and technical capacity to meet the regulation’s strict requirements. In response, Vietnam is encouraging the formation of cooperatives and investing in digital tracking tools to strengthen supply chain transparency and maintain access to the EU market. ([9])

Government Initiatives and the Future of the Industry

In response to structural weaknesses and growing competition, the Vietnamese government is taking active steps to support the rubber industry. Under Decision No. 431/QD-BNN-TT dated January 26, 2024, approving the Project on developing key industrial crops by 2030, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development sets a target that by 2030, the total rubber area in the country will reach about 800 – 850 thousand hectares; 100% of latex and rubber wood will have a growing area code to trace the origin of the product ([10]).

Vietnam’s heavy reliance on the Chinese rubber market highlights the urgent need to diversify its export destinations. The United States offers a promising alternative since it has recently reduced its dependence on rubber imports from traditional suppliers like Canada, Mexico, and China as a result of tariff sanctions. This opens opportunities for Vietnam to expand its presence. In 2024, Vietnam exported 29,200 tons of rubber to the US, valued at 50.6 million USD, with its market share growing modestly from 1.5% in 2023 to 1.7%. Although this remains low compared to regional competitors such as Thailand (16.4%) and Indonesia (22.5%) the US’s large and quality-demanding market presents significant potential for growth ([11]). To capitalize on this, Vietnamese rubber producers must focus on improving product quality to meet stringent US standards and capture a larger share of this valuable market.

Conclusion

To ensure the long-term sustainability of its rubber industry, Vietnam must prioritize improving productivity and aligning with global environmental and traceability standards. Emphasizing higher-value, deep-processed rubber products will enhance export value and reduce dependence on raw materials. As global competition intensifies from countries like Thailand, Indonesia, and emerging suppliers—Vietnam should invest in modern technology, diversify its markets, and strengthen quality control to remain competitive and resilient in the evolving global rubber trade.

[1] https://www.berubco.com.vn/cao-su-duoc-trong-nhieu-nhat-o.html

[2] https://tapchicongthuong.vn/gia-duy-tri-muc-cao–xuat-khau-cao-su-nam-2024-du-bao-dat-khoang-3-3-2-ty-usd-126509.htm

[3] https://baochinhphu.vn/gia-cao-su-tang-cao-tu-xuat-khau-102250119070001572.htm

[4] https://caosu.com.vn/thi-truong-cao-su/gia-cao-su-tang-manh-ky-vong-mo-rong-thi-phan-va-gia-tang-gia-tri/

[5] https://giaothuong.congthuong.vn/xuat-khau-tang-manh-gia-cao-su-can-moc-lich-su-moi-386056.html

[6] https://giaothuong.congthuong.vn/thang-12025-gia-cao-su-xuat-khau-cua-viet-nam-tang-32-374672.html

[7] https://giaothuong.congthuong.vn/xuat-khau-tang-manh-gia-cao-su-can-moc-lich-su-moi-386056.html

[8] https://cafef.vn/trung-quoc-mua-hang-trieu-tan-vang-trang-de-theo-duoi-giac-mo-xe-dien-nhung-lai-giam-nhap-tu-viet-nam-188250505142954721.chn

[9] https://vietnamnews.vn/economy/1694795/eu-deforestation-rules-pose-challenges-for-rubber-production-in-viet-nam-cambodia.html

[10] https://baotintuc.vn/infographics/muc-tieu-den-nam-2030-dien-tich-cao-su-cua-ca-nuoc-khoang-800-850-nghin-ha-20240216061236569.htm

[11] https://www.dnse.com.vn/senses/tin-tuc/hai-dong-luc-chinh-cho-nhom-co-phieu-cao-su-35004253

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