US-China Trade Tension: Assessment for Opportunities and Challenges for Business in Vietnam

20Mar2025

B&Company

B&Company is the first Japanese company specializing in market research and investment consulting in Vietnam since 2008.

In this section “Vietnam Briefing”, young researchers of B&Company will provide timely information of Vietnam’s industrial trends, consumer trends, and social movements.

This article is written in English and automatic translation is used for other language versions. Please refer to the English version for accurate content. Although we strive to ensure the accuracy of the original information, please check separately for each information. Interpretations and future prospects are the personal opinions of each researcher.

The escalating US-China trade tensions are reshaping global trade, positioning Vietnam as a key alternative hub for investment and exports. As tariffs disrupt supply chains, Vietnam is expected to benefit from increased foreign investment and trade diversification, particularly in textiles, agriculture, and logistics.

Overview of US-China Trade Tensions

The US-China trade tensions represent one of the most significant economic conflicts in modern global trade. Rooted in long-standing economic and geopolitical rivalries, the trade dispute escalated significantly in 2018, when the United States imposed tariffs on 50 billion USD worth of Chinese imports, citing concerns over intellectual property theft, unfair trade practices, and a growing trade deficit. In response, China retaliated with its own tariffs on US goods, triggering a cycle of escalating economic measures[1].

The trade tensions continued years after and started to escalate significantly in early 2025, marked by the introduction of new tariffs and retaliatory measures that disrupted global trade dynamics. On February 1, 2025, the US officially imposed a 10% tariff on all imports originating from China, citing the need to prevent a deepening economic imbalance between the two economies[2].

Shortly after, on February 4, 2025, China responded to the US trade policy by imposing two tariff rates: 15% on coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) and 10% on crude oil, agricultural equipment, trucks, and large motor vehicles. Unlike the US, which applied tariffs broadly across all product categories, China adopted a more targeted approach, focusing on key US export industries to increase leverage in upcoming negotiations. The objective was to pressure the US into reaching a mutually favorable trade agreement[3].

However, by March 3, 2025, as no consensus had been reached between the two sides, the US proceeded to increase its tariff rate to 20% on all imports from China[4]. Just a day later, on March 4, 2025, China retaliated by imposing a new set of tariffs targeting agricultural products, dairy, and meat, with an estimated total trade value of $22 billion worth of US goods[5].

US agricultural products faced tariffs amounting to several billion USD

Source: Financial Times

Categories of Goods Affected by Tariff Policies

The latest trade measures between the United States and China have significantly altered the landscape of global supply chains, affecting a wide range of industries. Compared to 2023, tariffs on US exports to China for these products were relatively low, ranging from 5% to 19%, with an average of 9%. However, they have now surged dramatically, reaching 10% to as high as 15% for certain specialized goods, reaching an average of 11%. Following the same trend, Chinese exports to the US, which previously faced tariffs of only 0% to 11% in 2023, are now subject to a flat 20% tariff across all product categories.

China’s newly imposed tariffs target key US export sectors worth billions of dollars, including energy, agriculture, consumer goods, and industrial equipment. For instance, tariffs on agricultural products alone are expected to affect 21 billion USD worth of goods[6]. These measures not only impact direct exporters but also disrupt suppliers within global value chains, adding further pressure on international trade dynamics.

List of products under the tariff policies between US – China by March 8th, 2025

Product categories	HS code number	Tariff on US exports to China[7]	Tariff on China exports to the US[8]
Meat and edible meat offal	02(01-03), 0206, 0210	10%	20%
Fish and crustaceans, mollusks and other aquatic invertebrates	03(01-09)
Dairy produce	04(01-06)
Products of animal origin	0508, 0511
Edible vegetables and certain roots and tubers	07(01-14)
Edible fruit and nuts; peel of citrus fruit or melons	08(01-13)
Cereals	1007
Flour, meal, powder, flakes, etc.	11(05-06)
Soybeans, whether or not broken	1201
Preparations of meat, of fish	16(02-04)
Tapioca and substitutes therefor prepared from starch	1903
preparations of vegetables, fruit, nuts, or other parts of plants	20(01-08)
Sauces and preparations therefore; mixed condiments and mixed seasonings ; Ice cream and other edible ice, whether or not containing cocoa	2103, 2105
Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude	2709
Casein, caseinates and other casein derivatives; Albumins	35(01-02)
Machinery and mechanical appliances	8419, 8424, 843(2-8), 8479
Vehicles other than railway or tramway rolling stock	870(1-4), 8716
Meat and edible offal, fresh, frozen, or chilled	0207	15%	20%
Wheat, meslin, and corn (maize)	1001,1005
Wheat, meslin or cereal flour, grains, meal, or pellets, etc.	11(01-04)
Other prepared or preserved meat, meat offal, blood, or insects	1602
Coal, lignite, petroleum gases, and other gaseous hydrocarbons	27(01-02), 2711
Cotton	5201, 5203

Source: B&Company Compilation

As trade tensions between the US and China continue to escalate, this situation creates an opportunity for Vietnam—an economic hub in Southeast Asia and a strategic partner to both nations—to expand its growth in industries that are currently facing heavy tariffs.

Opportunities and Challenges for Business in Vietnam

In 2023, the United States ranked 10th in newly registered FDI in Vietnam, contributing 647 million USD (only 2% of total newly registered FDI), while China ranked 4th, investing nearly 5 billion USD (12% of the total). However, thanks to Vietnam’s strategic proximity to China, both investments are expected to rise as companies shift production to Vietnam as a manufacturing and exporting hub to minimize tariff exposure. This shift presents an opportunity for Vietnam to strengthen its industrial and export sectors, particularly in areas where it already has a competitive advantage.

In addition, Vietnam’s export sector, related to the trade war industry, is also well-positioned to benefit. In 2023, machinery, fruits, and cotton[9] exports to China each exceeded 1 billion USD, taking advantage of a 0% tariff rate. Similarly, Vietnam’s top exports to the US – such as aquatic products, vehicles & parts, and machinery[10] – faced low tariffs of 0.5% to 2%, making them highly competitive. With these favorable conditions, Vietnam can further expand exports in these sectors, particularly in agriculture and seafood for China and industrial goods for the US.

However, despite the significant growth opportunities, Vietnam still faces several challenges. Firstly, strict requirements regarding product quality, packaging, and sustainability standards remain major obstacles for Vietnamese agricultural and food products entering the US market. Secondly, as Vietnam solidifies its position as an economic hub in Southeast Asia, it will inevitably attract a greater flow of goods from both the US and China as businesses from these markets seek new consumer bases. This will lead to increased competition for domestic enterprises, requiring them to enhance their competitiveness. Thirdly, as a neutral nation, the Vietnamese government must implement strategic negotiations and precautionary measures to avoid being caught in the US-China trade conflict, particularly given the risk of Chinese goods being re-exported through Vietnam to bypass US tariffs.

Conclusion

Vietnam is well-positioned to benefit from the US-China trade tensions, attracting increased investment, expanding exports, and strengthening its industrial sector. Notably, as Vietnam serves as a third-market bridge for exports between the two economic powers, the warehouse, logistics, and storage industries are expected to experience significant growth. However, businesses must also navigate intensifying competition and regulatory challenges to fully capitalize on these opportunities.

[1] Reuters (2018). Trump Sets Tariffs on 50 Billion USD in Chinese Goods <Access>

[2] U.S. Government Publishing Office (2025). Imposing Duties to Address the Synthetic Opioid Supply Chain in the People’s Republic of China <Access>

[3] Ministry of Finance of China (2025). Imposing Additional Tariffs on Certain Imported Goods Originating in the United States <Access>

[4] U.S. Government Publishing Office (2025). Further Amendment to Duties Addressing the Synthetic Opioid Supply Chain in the People’s Republic of China <Access>

[5] The Financial Times (2025). China hits US farm goods with tariffs as trade war escalates <Access>

[6] Reuters (2025). China Hits US Agriculture, Says It Won’t be Bullied by Fresh Trump Tariffs <Access>

[7] The tariff will take effect starting from March 10th, 2025. However, before March 10th, if the goods have been shipped from the place of departure and imported between March 10th and April 12th, the additional tariffs imposed in this announcement shall not be levied.

[8] The tariff takes effect on March 3rd, 2025

[9] HS code: 84, 08, 52, respectively

[10] HS code: 03, 87, 84, respectively

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