Khảo sát thu thập dữ liệu để cải thiện tài chính nhà ở

Nghiên cứu điển hình này được tổng hợp vào tháng 9 năm 2016.

Bối cảnh dự án

Từ khi hội nhập và toàn cầu hóa diễn ra, Việt Nam đã chứng kiến sự tăng trưởng liên tục ở mức cao. Tuy nhiên, sau khi một số hiệp định quốc tế được ký kết và có hiệu lực, đầu tư vốn và chi tiêu vốn quy mô lớn (CAPEX) liên tục giảm, điều này đã tạo ra rào cản cho việc thúc đẩy tiêu dùng trong nước.

Nhà ở là nhu cầu cơ bản để sinh sống, nhưng ở Việt Nam, đầu tư và tiêu dùng cho nhà ở thấp hơn nhiều so với các nước phát triển. Mặc dù kinh tế, đô thị hóa và dân số phát triển, Việt Nam vẫn thiếu nhà ở cả về số lượng và chất lượng.

Bên cạnh việc thiếu các công ty xây dựng có tay nghề cao và kinh nghiệm, một trong những khó khăn lớn nhất là khả năng tiếp cận tài chính hạn chế, dẫn đến tình trạng thiếu hụt nguồn cung nhà ở. Mặc dù Chính phủ đã tung ra gói 30 nghìn tỷ đồng trong dự án kích cầu hỗ trợ người thu nhập thấp mua nhà, nhưng vẫn chưa đủ vì phần lớn người mua nhà ở Việt Nam được tài trợ bằng tiền tiết kiệm cá nhân hoặc tiền vay từ gia đình hoặc người thân, trong khi các khoản vay hiếm khi được tin cậy hoặc dễ tiếp cận. Trong khi có một quan niệm chung cũ rằng các khoản vay phải chịu lãi suất cao, thì khó khăn trong việc tiếp cận các khoản vay nhà ở từ các ngân hàng hoặc tổ chức tài chính là một lý do khác.

Nhìn thấu những nút thắt đó, Ngân hàng Mitsubishi UFJ đã phối hợp với JICA và B&Company Việt Nam triển khai khảo sát nhằm thu thập thông tin phục vụ mục đích tăng cường chương trình cho vay mua nhà vốn rất cần thiết cho sự phát triển đầu tư nhà ở tại Việt Nam, qua đó đưa ra những kiến nghị với Chính phủ Việt Nam về những chính sách cần thiết trong tương lai.

 

Khách hàng: Cơ quan Hợp tác Quốc tế Nhật Bản (JICA) tại Việt Nam, Ngân hàng Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd.
Kiểu: Nghiên cứu thị trường, Tư vấn
Thời gian: 2016
Trạng thái: Hoàn thành

To thoroughly review the overall situation of housing, rental properties and real estate financing required a huge scale of researches, from studying legal framework, upcoming visions and policies, gathering information to comprehend current issues of housing market to conducting a mass survey to acquire necessary understanding regarding buyers’ demand and needs.

The survey conducted among consumers played a centric role in providing practical statistics for project consultants and advisors to catch the picture and build a proper forecast model. Therefore, it was crucial to prepare the most appropriate design for respondent selection and then implementation. Additionally, how to apply formulas to calculate and estimate the situation and future demand, hence provide the most relevant schemes to improve housing loans in Vietnam was another question. It also required a close coordination between the collection team and the analysis team to flexibly combine and swap among multiple sources and techniques to be able to build up the most insightful and reliable output in each segment.

In order to gather sufficient information in various real estate related segments, the project team explicitly divided it into 2 main tasks, which were to conduct desk search about current regulations, conditions for housing loans and to carry out the mass survey among consumers to obtain people’s real demand for housing finance.

Initially, several desk researches on different topics were run separately and simultaneously, with the aim to dissecting the original questions through distinguishing angles of different stakeholders, including the government, home buyers, suppliers, financial institutions and the housing market itself. Therefrom, the project team would be able to establish a solid and entire landscape.

The consumer survey was combined of 2 methods, in which the sample for face-to-face street interview was 1,200 and for online survey was 2,000. To unify the design of the survey that was supposed to identify and break down financial needs of house purchasers, both offline and online collection targeted four same groups of respondents, based on their past experience of buying house, future demand and plan to buy a house and intention to mobilize money from bank loans. The content of the questionnaire was determined towards predefined models and in-depth analysis by specifying typical indicators, such as Loan to Value (LTV), monthly repayment ratio (MR)… Thanks to that, findings of desk research and survey were consolidated and assembled in forecast models.

That is to say, all formulas and models applied in calculation and estimation were carefully considered and picked up in prior to fieldwork implementation, so that they were compatible for analysis. In this project, many ideas from internal consultants and other experts were referred to in order to propose the most appropriate working models.

After the data synthetization, processing and analysis, the project successfully extracted some concise but valuable key findings that could contribute to the enhancement of the Vietnam’s real estate industry in general and the rental housing and housing loans in particular.

  • Firstly, from reviewing current market situation, current legal environment and policies, the Vietnamese government had set a direction for developing a national strategy until 2030, in which housing finance policies were addressed until 2020. However, it required more sufficient instruction documents from related agencies, such as the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), so that credit institutions could arrange actions to correspond to the nation’s visions.
  • From market’s viewpoint, demand for housing in Vietnam was high, regardless of different classes or incomes. It was estimated that by 2035, there would be a need of more than 100,000 housing units to absorb the demand of middle-aged and middle-income groups in Hanoi and Hochiminh City, which’d value of more than 150 trillion VND. However, limited capital remained one of the biggest issues. While bank loan services were still unable to earn trust among consumers, economic incapability might continue to drag down the actual consumption compared with the expected figures.
  • In the meantime, rental housing, leasing and low-cost properties were also facing troubles instead of providing an alternative source for residence. It came from the lack of government legislation and subsidies, insufficiencies in supplies’ quantity and quality. Despite all promotion efforts outlined by the authorities, it would take time to complete the whole system and put it into a practical, efficient implementation.
  • Upon collected data and information, the project team came up with initiatives for a new housing loan scheme, which proposed more active participation from government, financial institutions and other organizations. Firstly, it was important to build specific conditions for eligibility of houses and borrowers and expand the elaborate idea on the nationwide scale. Secondly, it urged the revoke of the government’s role in supporting house financing, by issuing more favorable regulations, adjusting financial instruments, creating long-term funds… Financial institutions like commercial banks were also called to engage more in the implementation, while foreign assistance, such as from JICA, was paramount in drawing low-interest ODA funds to the domestic market.
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