改善住房金融的数据收集调查

该案例研究于 2016 年 9 月得到合并。

项目背景

越南自融入全球化以来，经济持续保持高增长，但随着多项国际协议签署生效，大规模资本投资及资本支出（CAPEX）持续减少，对国内消费的拉动形成阻碍。

住房是人们生活的基本需求，但越南住房投资和消费水平与发达国家相比仍处于较低水平，尽管越南经济、城市化和人口不断增长，但住房数量和质量仍然不足。

除了缺乏高技能和经验丰富的建筑公司外，最大的困难之一是融资渠道有限，这导致住房供应不足。尽管政府在刺激计划中推出了 30 万亿越南盾的一揽子计划，以支持低收入人群买房，但这仍然不够，因为越南大多数购房者都是通过个人储蓄或从家人或亲戚那里借钱来购房，而贷款很少既不可信也不容易获得。虽然人们普遍认为贷款利率高，但难以从银行或金融机构获得住房贷款也是另一个原因。

看到这些瓶颈，三菱日联银行与日本国际协力机构（JICA）和B&Company Vietnam合作开展了这项调查，以获取有关加强住房贷款计划的信息，这对于越南住房投资的发展至关重要，并由此向越南政府提出未来必要政策的建议。

 

客户： 日本国际协力机构越南办事处（JICA）、三菱东京日联银行有限公司
类型： 市场研究、咨询
时间： 2016
地位： 完全的

Challenges

To thoroughly review the overall situation of housing, rental properties and real estate financing required a huge scale of researches, from studying legal framework, upcoming visions and policies, gathering information to comprehend current issues of housing market to conducting a mass survey to acquire necessary understanding regarding buyers’ demand and needs.

The survey conducted among consumers played a centric role in providing practical statistics for project consultants and advisors to catch the picture and build a proper forecast model. Therefore, it was crucial to prepare the most appropriate design for respondent selection and then implementation. Additionally, how to apply formulas to calculate and estimate the situation and future demand, hence provide the most relevant schemes to improve housing loans in Vietnam was another question. It also required a close coordination between the collection team and the analysis team to flexibly combine and swap among multiple sources and techniques to be able to build up the most insightful and reliable output in each segment.

Solutions

In order to gather sufficient information in various real estate related segments, the project team explicitly divided it into 2 main tasks, which were to conduct desk search about current regulations, conditions for housing loans and to carry out the mass survey among consumers to obtain people’s real demand for housing finance.

Initially, several desk researches on different topics were run separately and simultaneously, with the aim to dissecting the original questions through distinguishing angles of different stakeholders, including the government, home buyers, suppliers, financial institutions and the housing market itself. Therefrom, the project team would be able to establish a solid and entire landscape.

The consumer survey was combined of 2 methods, in which the sample for face-to-face street interview was 1,200 and for online survey was 2,000. To unify the design of the survey that was supposed to identify and break down financial needs of house purchasers, both offline and online collection targeted four same groups of respondents, based on their past experience of buying house, future demand and plan to buy a house and intention to mobilize money from bank loans. The content of the questionnaire was determined towards predefined models and in-depth analysis by specifying typical indicators, such as Loan to Value (LTV), monthly repayment ratio (MR)… Thanks to that, findings of desk research and survey were consolidated and assembled in forecast models.

That is to say, all formulas and models applied in calculation and estimation were carefully considered and picked up in prior to fieldwork implementation, so that they were compatible for analysis. In this project, many ideas from internal consultants and other experts were referred to in order to propose the most appropriate working models.

Results

After the data synthetization, processing and analysis, the project successfully extracted some concise but valuable key findings that could contribute to the enhancement of the Vietnam’s real estate industry in general and the rental housing and housing loans in particular.

  • Firstly, from reviewing current market situation, current legal environment and policies, the Vietnamese government had set a direction for developing a national strategy until 2030, in which housing finance policies were addressed until 2020. However, it required more sufficient instruction documents from related agencies, such as the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), so that credit institutions could arrange actions to correspond to the nation’s visions.
  • From market’s viewpoint, demand for housing in Vietnam was high, regardless of different classes or incomes. It was estimated that by 2035, there would be a need of more than 100,000 housing units to absorb the demand of middle-aged and middle-income groups in Hanoi and Hochiminh City, which’d value of more than 150 trillion VND. However, limited capital remained one of the biggest issues. While bank loan services were still unable to earn trust among consumers, economic incapability might continue to drag down the actual consumption compared with the expected figures.
  • In the meantime, rental housing, leasing and low-cost properties were also facing troubles instead of providing an alternative source for residence. It came from the lack of government legislation and subsidies, insufficiencies in supplies’ quantity and quality. Despite all promotion efforts outlined by the authorities, it would take time to complete the whole system and put it into a practical, efficient implementation.
  • Upon collected data and information, the project team came up with initiatives for a new housing loan scheme, which proposed more active participation from government, financial institutions and other organizations. Firstly, it was important to build specific conditions for eligibility of houses and borrowers and expand the elaborate idea on the nationwide scale. Secondly, it urged the revoke of the government’s role in supporting house financing, by issuing more favorable regulations, adjusting financial instruments, creating long-term funds… Financial institutions like commercial banks were also called to engage more in the implementation, while foreign assistance, such as from JICA, was paramount in drawing low-interest ODA funds to the domestic market.
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