住宅金融改善のためのデータ収集調査

このケーススタディは 2016 年 9 月に統合されました。

プロジェクトの背景

統合とグローバル化が進んで以来、ベトナムは継続的に高い成長を遂げてきました。しかし、いくつかの国際協定が締結され発効した後、大規模な資本投資と設備投資（CAPEX）は減少し続け、国内消費の拡大を妨げる要因となりました。

住宅は生活の基本的なニーズですが、ベトナムでは住宅への投資と消費は先進国に比べてはるかに低く、経済、都市化、人口の発展にもかかわらず、ベトナムは依然として住宅の量と質の両面で不足しています。

高いスキルと経験を持つ建設会社の不足に加え、最も大きな問題の一つは、住宅供給の不足につながる金融アクセスの制限でした。政府は低所得者の住宅購入を支援するため、景気刺激策として30兆VNDのパッケージを発表しましたが、ベトナムの住宅購入者の大半は個人の貯蓄や家族や親戚からの借り入れで資金を調達しており、ローンはほとんど信用できず、利用しにくいため、それでも不十分でした。ローンには高い金利がかかるという古い常識がありましたが、銀行や金融機関から住宅ローンを取得するのが難しいことも別の理由でした。

こうした現状を踏まえ、三菱UFJ銀行は、JICAおよびB&Company Vietnamと連携し、ベトナムの住宅投資の発展に不可欠な住宅ローン制度の拡充に向けた情報収集を行い、今後ベトナム政府に必要な政策提言を行うため、調査を開始しました。

 

クライアント： 国際協力機構ベトナム事務所（JICA）、株式会社三菱東京UFJ銀行
タイプ： 市場調査、コンサルティング
時間： 2016
状態： 完了

Challenges

To thoroughly review the overall situation of housing, rental properties and real estate financing required a huge scale of researches, from studying legal framework, upcoming visions and policies, gathering information to comprehend current issues of housing market to conducting a mass survey to acquire necessary understanding regarding buyers’ demand and needs.

The survey conducted among consumers played a centric role in providing practical statistics for project consultants and advisors to catch the picture and build a proper forecast model. Therefore, it was crucial to prepare the most appropriate design for respondent selection and then implementation. Additionally, how to apply formulas to calculate and estimate the situation and future demand, hence provide the most relevant schemes to improve housing loans in Vietnam was another question. It also required a close coordination between the collection team and the analysis team to flexibly combine and swap among multiple sources and techniques to be able to build up the most insightful and reliable output in each segment.

Solutions

In order to gather sufficient information in various real estate related segments, the project team explicitly divided it into 2 main tasks, which were to conduct desk search about current regulations, conditions for housing loans and to carry out the mass survey among consumers to obtain people’s real demand for housing finance.

Initially, several desk researches on different topics were run separately and simultaneously, with the aim to dissecting the original questions through distinguishing angles of different stakeholders, including the government, home buyers, suppliers, financial institutions and the housing market itself. Therefrom, the project team would be able to establish a solid and entire landscape.

The consumer survey was combined of 2 methods, in which the sample for face-to-face street interview was 1,200 and for online survey was 2,000. To unify the design of the survey that was supposed to identify and break down financial needs of house purchasers, both offline and online collection targeted four same groups of respondents, based on their past experience of buying house, future demand and plan to buy a house and intention to mobilize money from bank loans. The content of the questionnaire was determined towards predefined models and in-depth analysis by specifying typical indicators, such as Loan to Value (LTV), monthly repayment ratio (MR)… Thanks to that, findings of desk research and survey were consolidated and assembled in forecast models.

That is to say, all formulas and models applied in calculation and estimation were carefully considered and picked up in prior to fieldwork implementation, so that they were compatible for analysis. In this project, many ideas from internal consultants and other experts were referred to in order to propose the most appropriate working models.

Results

After the data synthetization, processing and analysis, the project successfully extracted some concise but valuable key findings that could contribute to the enhancement of the Vietnam’s real estate industry in general and the rental housing and housing loans in particular.

  • Firstly, from reviewing current market situation, current legal environment and policies, the Vietnamese government had set a direction for developing a national strategy until 2030, in which housing finance policies were addressed until 2020. However, it required more sufficient instruction documents from related agencies, such as the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), so that credit institutions could arrange actions to correspond to the nation’s visions.
  • From market’s viewpoint, demand for housing in Vietnam was high, regardless of different classes or incomes. It was estimated that by 2035, there would be a need of more than 100,000 housing units to absorb the demand of middle-aged and middle-income groups in Hanoi and Hochiminh City, which’d value of more than 150 trillion VND. However, limited capital remained one of the biggest issues. While bank loan services were still unable to earn trust among consumers, economic incapability might continue to drag down the actual consumption compared with the expected figures.
  • In the meantime, rental housing, leasing and low-cost properties were also facing troubles instead of providing an alternative source for residence. It came from the lack of government legislation and subsidies, insufficiencies in supplies’ quantity and quality. Despite all promotion efforts outlined by the authorities, it would take time to complete the whole system and put it into a practical, efficient implementation.
  • Upon collected data and information, the project team came up with initiatives for a new housing loan scheme, which proposed more active participation from government, financial institutions and other organizations. Firstly, it was important to build specific conditions for eligibility of houses and borrowers and expand the elaborate idea on the nationwide scale. Secondly, it urged the revoke of the government’s role in supporting house financing, by issuing more favorable regulations, adjusting financial instruments, creating long-term funds… Financial institutions like commercial banks were also called to engage more in the implementation, while foreign assistance, such as from JICA, was paramount in drawing low-interest ODA funds to the domestic market.
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