{"id":24376,"date":"2026-04-23T20:30:18","date_gmt":"2026-04-23T13:30:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/b-company.jp\/?p=24376"},"modified":"2026-04-23T20:30:18","modified_gmt":"2026-04-23T13:30:18","slug":"middle-east-conflict-a-supply-chain-perspective-the-domino-effect-from-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/b-company.jp\/vi\/middle-east-conflict-a-supply-chain-perspective-the-domino-effect-from-china\/","title":{"rendered":"Xung \u0111\u1ed9t Trung \u0110\u00f4ng: G\u00f3c nh\u00ecn t\u1eeb chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng \u2013 Hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng domino t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c"},"content":{"rendered":"

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<\/span>B&Company l\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ty Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean chuy\u00ean v\u1ec1 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 t\u01b0 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2008.<\/span><\/i>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Trong chuy\u00ean m\u1ee5c \u201cTh\u00f4ng tin Vi\u1ec7t Nam\u201d, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u tr\u1ebb c\u1ee7a B&Company s\u1ebd cung c\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng th\u00f4ng tin c\u1eadp nh\u1eadt v\u1ec1 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p, xu h\u01b0\u1edbng ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c phong tr\u00e0o x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam.<\/span><\/i>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

B\u00e0i vi\u1ebft n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c vi\u1ebft b\u1eb1ng ti\u1ebfng Anh v\u00e0 b\u1ea3n d\u1ecbch t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng cho c\u00e1c phi\u00ean b\u1ea3n ng\u00f4n ng\u1eef kh\u00e1c. Vui l\u00f2ng tham kh\u1ea3o phi\u00ean b\u1ea3n ti\u1ebfng Anh \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 n\u1ed9i dung ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 ch\u00fang t\u00f4i c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o t\u00ednh ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u1ee7a th\u00f4ng tin g\u1ed1c, vui l\u00f2ng ki\u1ec3m tra ri\u00eang t\u1eebng th\u00f4ng tin. C\u00e1c di\u1ec5n gi\u1ea3i v\u00e0 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai l\u00e0 \u00fd ki\u1ebfn c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n c\u1ee7a m\u1ed7i nh\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\t

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S\u1ef1 leo thang c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01a1n thu\u1ea7n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb khu v\u1ef1c. Khi c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng lan r\u1ed9ng d\u1ecdc theo c\u00e1c h\u00e0nh lang h\u00e0ng h\u1ea3i v\u00e0 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng tr\u1ecdng y\u1ebfu, c\u00fa s\u1ed1c \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c truy\u1ec1n tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp v\u00e0o chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u th\u00f4ng qua chi ph\u00ed n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cao h\u01a1n, gi\u00e1 c\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n t\u0103ng, th\u1eddi gian giao h\u00e0ng k\u00e9o d\u00e0i h\u01a1n v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng gia t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t tr\u00ean to\u00e0n th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh n\u00e0y, Trung Qu\u1ed1c chi\u1ebfm m\u1ed9t v\u1ecb tr\u00ed then ch\u1ed1t: v\u1eeba l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1edbn v\u1eeba l\u00e0 trung t\u00e2m s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh k\u00eanh truy\u1ec1n d\u1eabn ch\u00ednh m\u00e0 qua \u0111\u00f3 m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t khu v\u1ef1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n th\u00e0nh s\u1ef1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n

Xung \u0111\u1ed9t Trung \u0110\u00f4ng v\u00e0 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 \u0111\u1ebfn chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Nh\u00ecn t\u1eeb g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9 chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng, xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01a1n thu\u1ea7n l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00f3ng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, m\u00e0 c\u00f2n l\u00e0 c\u00fa s\u1ed1c tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 huy\u1ebft m\u1ea1ch quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Khi c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng lan r\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz, m\u1ed9t h\u00e0nh lang h\u00e0ng h\u1ea3i v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n kho\u1ea3ng m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n t\u01b0 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng bi\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1edbn kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n, h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u0111\u00e3 nhanh ch\u00f3ng lan r\u1ed9ng ra ngo\u00e0i khu v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y.[1]<\/a>\u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111ang b\u1ecb \u0111e d\u1ecda hi\u1ec7n nay kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, m\u00e0 c\u00f2n l\u00e0 to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac chi ph\u00ed h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i tr\u00ean quy m\u00f4 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Trong c\u00e1c chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i, n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i; n\u00f3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft m\u1ecdi giai \u0111o\u1ea1n ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng.[2]<\/a>.<\/p>\n

T\u1eeb \u0111i\u1ec3m ngh\u1ebdn n\u00e0y, c\u00fa s\u1ed1c lan truy\u1ec1n theo m\u1ed9t tr\u00ecnh t\u1ef1 r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng. S\u1ef1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y d\u1ea7u kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u t\u0103ng l\u00ean tr\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u00ean, sau \u0111\u00f3 lan sang gi\u00e1 c\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n, ph\u00ed b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m, chi ph\u00ed kho b\u00e3i v\u00e0 cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng l\u00e0 chi ph\u00ed s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t.[3]<\/a>V\u00ec l\u00fd do n\u00e0y, t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 d\u1eebng l\u1ea1i \u1edf vi\u1ec7c ch\u1eadm tr\u1ec5 d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a; n\u00f3 c\u00f2n khi\u1ebfn chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u tr\u1edf n\u00ean \u0111\u1eaft \u0111\u1ecf h\u01a1n, d\u1ec5 b\u1ecb t\u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng h\u01a1n v\u00e0 d\u1ec5 g\u1eb7p r\u1ee7i ro h\u01a1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1eefng c\u00fa s\u1ed1c ti\u1ebfp theo. IMF \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o r\u1eb1ng cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea9y n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u l\u00ean m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 cao h\u01a1n v\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u1eadm h\u01a1n. \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, UNCTAD d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o r\u1eb1ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2026 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n kho\u1ea3ng 1,5 \u0111\u1ebfn 2,5 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m.[4]<\/a>Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u00e1p l\u1ef1c chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang New York \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean 0,68 trong th\u00e1ng 3, m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2023.[5]<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u00e1p l\u1ef1c chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u (th\u00e1ng 4 n\u0103m 2025 \u2013 th\u00e1ng 3 n\u0103m 2026)*<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Global<\/p>\n

Ngu\u1ed3n: Mtsinsights<\/a><\/p>\n

(*) Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chu\u1ea9n h\u00f3a xung quanh m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a n\u00f3. Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb 0 cho th\u1ea5y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng \u1edf m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh; gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb tr\u00ean 0 cho th\u1ea5y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c cao h\u01a1n b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng; v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u01b0\u1edbi 0 cho th\u1ea5y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng. Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng tr\u00ean 0, th\u00ec s\u1ef1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n v\u00e0 \u00e1p l\u1ef1c chi ph\u00ed tr\u00ean to\u00e0n chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng c\u00e0ng l\u1edbn; ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u00e0ng gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi 0, th\u00ec \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng c\u00e0ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng v\u00e0 b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00f3a.<\/p>\n

V\u00ec sao Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3m truy\u1ec1n t\u1ea3i trung t\u00e2m?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

N\u1ebfu cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 cho th\u1ea5y c\u00fa s\u1ed1c t\u1eeb eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 lan truy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, chi ph\u00ed v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n v\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o, th\u00ec Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3m truy\u1ec1n d\u1eabn quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t m\u00e0 qua \u0111\u00f3 c\u00fa s\u1ed1c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c lan truy\u1ec1n. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y l\u00e0 b\u1edfi v\u00ec Trung Qu\u1ed1c kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3 m\u00e0 c\u00f2n ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u v\u00e0o d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf t\u1eeb Trung \u0110\u00f4ng. Theo C\u01a1 quan N\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf (IEA), Trung Qu\u1ed1c hi\u1ec7n l\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc mua d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 Trung \u0110\u00f4ng l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t ch\u00e2u \u00c1 \u0111i qua eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz, chi\u1ebfm 37% t\u1ed5ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u qua eo bi\u1ec3n n\u00e0y, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng h\u01a1n 5,2 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng m\u1ed7i ng\u00e0y. Ri\u00eang d\u1ea7u t\u1eeb v\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh \u0111\u00e3 chi\u1ebfm h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ea7u nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u b\u1eb1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng bi\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c.[6]<\/a>.<\/p>\n

T\u1ed5ng nhu c\u1ea7u d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u0169ng d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng, t\u1eeb 14,2 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y n\u0103m 2019 l\u00ean m\u1ee9c d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn 17 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2026. \u0110i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng l\u00e0, s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y b\u1edfi nhu c\u1ea7u x\u0103ng d\u1ea7u th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng, m\u00e0 ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n b\u1edfi naphtha, m\u1ed9t nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u quan tr\u1ecdng cho s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t h\u00f3a d\u1ea7u v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng khi t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng l\u00e0m x\u00e1o tr\u1ed9n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 truy\u1ec1n qua gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u m\u00e0 c\u00f2n tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn c\u01a1 s\u1edf s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c.<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ee9ng \u1edf trung t\u00e2m c\u1ee7a hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng domino kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 v\u00ec nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1edbn n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u00e0 c\u00f2n v\u00ec n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y v\u1eabn l\u00e0 trung t\u00e2m s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. T\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c Th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi (WTO) b\u00e1o c\u00e1o r\u1eb1ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ea1t 3,77 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 USD v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2025, chi\u1ebfm 14,4% t\u1ed5ng kim ng\u1ea1ch th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p kho\u1ea3ng 30% v\u00e0o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u0169ng v\u1eabn l\u00e0 nh\u00e0 cung c\u1ea5p h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1ec1 linh ki\u1ec7n \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed v\u00e0 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a trung gian cho c\u00e1c m\u1ea1ng l\u01b0\u1edbi s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t khu v\u1ef1c.[7]<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Vai tr\u00f2 trung t\u00e2m n\u00e0y c\u00e0ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 trong c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c. N\u0103m 2025, xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 cao c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c t\u0103ng 13,2% so v\u1edbi n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc. Xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u thi\u1ebft b\u1ecb chuy\u00ean d\u1ee5ng, m\u00e1y c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 cao c\u1ea5p v\u00e0 robot c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p t\u0103ng l\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3t 20,6%, 21,5% v\u00e0 48,7%. Trong c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p xanh, xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u pin lithium v\u00e0 tua bin gi\u00f3 t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh 26,2% v\u00e0 48,7%, trong khi xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u xe m\u00e1y \u0111i\u1ec7n v\u00e0 xe \u0111\u1ea1p \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u0103ng 18,1%.[8]<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Trong c\u00e1c l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c nh\u01b0 pin xe \u0111i\u1ec7n v\u00e0 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi, s\u1ef1 t\u1eadp trung th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f2n r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t h\u01a1n. C\u01a1 quan N\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf (IEA) l\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng Trung Qu\u1ed1c chi\u1ebfm g\u1ea7n 80% s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng pin xe \u0111i\u1ec7n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, g\u1ea7n 85% v\u1eadt li\u1ec7u c\u1ef1c \u00e2m, h\u01a1n 90% v\u1eadt li\u1ec7u c\u1ef1c d\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 h\u01a1n 80% n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t tr\u00ean t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng \u0111i\u1ec7n m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi. Do \u0111\u00f3, nh\u1eefng c\u00fa s\u1ed1c \u0111i qua Trung Qu\u1ed1c hi\u1ebfm khi d\u1eebng l\u1ea1i \u1edf bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi; ch\u00fang th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c truy\u1ec1n ra b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i th\u00f4ng qua chi ph\u00ed \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o cao h\u01a1n, th\u1eddi gian giao h\u00e0ng d\u00e0i h\u01a1n v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t ngu\u1ed3n cung gia t\u0103ng trong c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c nhi\u1ec1u v\u00e0o s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c.[9]<\/a>.[10]<\/a><\/p>\n

Hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng domino t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c lan r\u1ed9ng kh\u1eafp c\u00e1c chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng domino t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c th\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u b\u1eb1ng t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ngay l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c. N\u00f3 th\u01b0\u1eddng xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n tr\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u00ean th\u00f4ng qua chi ph\u00ed t\u0103ng cao v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ch\u1eadm tr\u1ec5 ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng gia t\u0103ng trong chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng. Khi xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, c\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n v\u00e0 ph\u00ed b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m l\u00ean cao, nh\u1eefng \u00e1p l\u1ef1c \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn chi ph\u00ed s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 sau \u0111\u00f3 lan truy\u1ec1n sang gi\u00e1 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u v\u00e0 m\u1ea1ng l\u01b0\u1edbi cung \u1ee9ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, r\u1ee7i ro v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n gia t\u0103ng l\u00e0m k\u00e9o d\u00e0i th\u1eddi gian giao h\u00e0ng, l\u00e0m gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 bu\u1ed9c c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty ph\u1ea3i duy tr\u00ec l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00e0ng t\u1ed3n kho an to\u00e0n cao h\u01a1n. V\u1edbi vai tr\u00f2 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng trung t\u00e2m cung \u1ee9ng l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i n\u00e0o v\u1ec1 c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac chi ph\u00ed ho\u1eb7c th\u1eddi gian giao h\u00e0ng trong n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nhanh ch\u00f3ng g\u00e2y ra hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng domino tr\u00ean kh\u1eafp c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c s\u00e2u s\u1eafc v\u00e0o ngu\u1ed3n cung c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c, bao g\u1ed3m \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed, m\u00e1y m\u00f3c, \u00f4 t\u00f4, pin v\u00e0 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u00e3 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng cho th\u1ea5y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 \u1edf Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111ang lan r\u1ed9ng ra ngo\u00e0i th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u th\u00f4 v\u00e0 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn ch\u00ednh c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p. Trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed, Kingboard Laminates, nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t t\u1ea5m laminate ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed3ng l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 ba l\u1ea7n ch\u1ec9 trong ba th\u00e1ng, v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng 10% cho c\u1ea3 nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u v\u00e0 chi ph\u00ed gia c\u00f4ng.[11]<\/a>Trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c \u00f4 t\u00f4, nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t xe \u0111i\u1ec7n NIO cho bi\u1ebft t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng thi\u1ebfu chip nh\u1edb v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u th\u00f4 t\u0103ng cao c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m t\u0103ng chi ph\u00ed s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t xe \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eeb 6.000 \u0111\u1ebfn 10.000 nh\u00e2n d\u00e2n t\u1ec7 m\u1ed7i chi\u1ebfc.[12]<\/a>Trong chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng pin, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t khi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 cung c\u1ea5p v\u1eadt li\u1ec7u cat\u1ed1t c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh gi\u00e1, v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u so v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 coban sunfat giao ngay thu h\u1eb9p t\u1eeb kho\u1ea3ng 10% xu\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n 5%, trong khi gi\u00e1 coban t\u0103ng t\u1eeb kho\u1ea3ng 10 USD\/pound l\u00ean g\u1ea7n 24 USD\/pound trong n\u0103m 2025.[13]<\/a>Trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi, vi\u1ec7c gi\u00e1 b\u1ea1c t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng 130% trong v\u00f2ng 12 th\u00e1ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea9y chi ph\u00ed s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t t\u1ea5m pin m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi t\u0103ng t\u1eeb 7 \u0111\u1ebfn 15%.[14]<\/a><\/p>\n

Nh\u1eefng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e0o c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng nhi\u1ec1u nh\u1ea5t?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

ASEAN c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng l\u00e0 khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean ch\u1ecbu \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng domino t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c, v\u00ec hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 c\u00f3 m\u1ed1i li\u00ean h\u1ec7 s\u00e2u r\u1ed9ng v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c trong chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t. N\u1ebfu chi ph\u00ed s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ho\u1eb7c logistics t\u0103ng \u1edf Trung Qu\u1ed1c, c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf nh\u01b0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam, Th\u00e1i Lan v\u00e0 Malaysia c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 linh ki\u1ec7n cao h\u01a1n, th\u1eddi gian giao h\u00e0ng l\u00e2u h\u01a1n v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro l\u1edbn h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p l\u1eafp r\u00e1p, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed v\u00e0 thi\u1ebft b\u1ecb c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p.[15]<\/a> .<\/p>\n

T\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam, Trung Qu\u1ed1c hi\u1ec7n l\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y. Trong qu\u00fd I n\u0103m 2026, nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ea1t 50,1 t\u1ef7 USD, t\u0103ng 34,4% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i, ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu bao g\u1ed3m h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a trung gian v\u00e0 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a t\u01b0 li\u1ec7u s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 m\u00e1y m\u00f3c, thi\u1ebft b\u1ecb v\u00e0 ph\u1ee5 t\u00f9ng.[16]<\/a>Do \u0111\u00f3, b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 s\u1ef1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n n\u00e0o \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c sang Vi\u1ec7t Nam kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u h\u00e0ng ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng; thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, tr\u01b0\u1edbc h\u1ebft n\u00f3 s\u1ebd l\u00e0m t\u0103ng c\u1ea3 chi ph\u00ed v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn xung quanh ngu\u1ed3n cung c\u1ea5p linh ki\u1ec7n, m\u00e1y m\u00f3c v\u00e0 nguy\u00ean v\u1eadt li\u1ec7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng, t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 g\u00e2y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u00ean k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady giao h\u00e0ng v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u1ea1nh tranh xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u.<\/p>\n

Khu v\u1ef1c \u0110\u00f4ng B\u1eafc \u00c1, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n, c\u0169ng r\u1ea5t d\u1ec5 b\u1ecb t\u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00ec c\u1ea3 hai n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec1u li\u00ean k\u1ebft ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c trong chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi v\u1eabn ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t. N\u1ebfu c\u00fa s\u1ed1c lan truy\u1ec1n qua Trung Qu\u1ed1c, H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ecbu \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng n\u1eb7ng n\u1ec1 h\u01a1n trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c b\u00e1n d\u1eabn, pin v\u00e0 h\u00f3a d\u1ea7u, trong khi Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1edbn h\u01a1n trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c \u00f4 t\u00f4, linh ki\u1ec7n c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 cao v\u00e0 c\u00e1c v\u1eadt li\u1ec7u chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u01b0 \u0111\u1ea5t hi\u1ebfm.[17]<\/a> [18]<\/a><\/p>\n

Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 \u0110\u1ee9c, l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00e1c c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 \u1edf c\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ed9 c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb cao. Trung Qu\u1ed1c ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 ch\u00ednh trong vi\u1ec7c cung c\u1ea5p linh ki\u1ec7n \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed, h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a trung gian v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u00e2u \u00c2u. Do \u0111\u00f3, b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 ho\u1eb7c th\u1eddi gian giao h\u00e0ng n\u00e0o \u1edf Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn ch\u00e2u \u00c2u kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 th\u00f4ng qua gi\u00e1 nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u cao h\u01a1n m\u00e0 c\u00f2n th\u00f4ng qua nh\u1eefng gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i nh\u01b0 m\u00e1y m\u00f3c, \u00f4 t\u00f4, h\u00f3a ch\u1ea5t v\u00e0 thi\u1ebft b\u1ecb c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p.[19]<\/a> [20]<\/a><\/p>\n

K\u1ebft lu\u1eadn<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb khu v\u1ef1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nhanh ch\u00f3ng bi\u1ebfn th\u00e0nh c\u00fa s\u1ed1c chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u khi n\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c h\u00e0nh lang n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i tr\u1ecdng y\u1ebfu. Tuy nhi\u00ean, quy m\u00f4 \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 c\u1ee7a c\u00fa s\u1ed1c \u0111\u00f3 ch\u1ec9 tr\u1edf n\u00ean r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng khi n\u00f3 lan qua Trung Qu\u1ed1c, n\u01a1i chi ph\u00ed n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u0103ng cao v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro h\u1eadu c\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chuy\u1ec3n h\u00f3a th\u00e0nh chi ph\u00ed s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t cao h\u01a1n, th\u1eddi gian giao h\u00e0ng d\u00e0i h\u01a1n v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n r\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n tr\u00ean to\u00e0n m\u1ea1ng l\u01b0\u1edbi c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p. Theo ngh\u0129a n\u00e0y, Trung Qu\u1ed1c kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 ngu\u1ed3n g\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng, m\u00e0 l\u00e0 k\u00eanh trung t\u00e2m m\u00e0 qua \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ef1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n khu v\u1ef1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng domino to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ecdc th\u00eam<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Xung \u0111\u1ed9t Trung \u0110\u00f4ng: T\u1eeb c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ebfn r\u1ee7i ro xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u \u2013 T\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ng\u00e0nh d\u1ec7t may, \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed v\u00e0 ch\u1ebf bi\u1ebfn g\u1ed7 c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n