주택금융 개선을 위한 데이터 수집 조사

이 사례 연구는 2016년 9월에 통합되었습니다.

프로젝트 배경

통합과 세계화가 이루어진 이래로 베트남은 지속적으로 높은 성장을 목격해 왔습니다. 그러나 여러 국제 협정이 체결되고 발효된 후 대규모 자본 투자와 자본 지출(CAPEX)이 계속 감소하여 국내 소비를 촉진하는 데 장애물이 되었습니다.

주택은 생활에 필수적인 요소였지만 베트남에서는 주택에 대한 투자와 소비가 선진국에 비해 훨씬 낮았습니다. 경제, 도시화, 인구가 발전했음에도 불구하고 베트남은 여전히 양과 질 면에서 주거용 주택이 부족했습니다.

높은 기술과 경험이 있는 건설 회사의 부족 외에도 가장 큰 어려움 중 하나는 주택 공급 부족으로 이어진 제한된 재정적 접근성이었습니다. 정부가 저소득층이 주택을 구매할 수 있도록 지원하는 경기 부양 프로젝트에서 30조 VND 패키지를 발표했지만, 베트남의 대부분 주택 구매자가 개인 저축이나 가족이나 친척에게서 빌린 돈으로 자금을 조달했고, 대출은 거의 신뢰할 수 없거나 접근하기 어려웠기 때문에 여전히 불충분했습니다. 대출은 높은 이자율을 초래한다는 오래된 상식이 있었지만, 은행이나 금융 기관에서 주택 대출을 받는 데 어려움이 있었던 것도 또 다른 이유였습니다.

이러한 난관을 극복하고자 미쓰비시 UFJ 은행은 JICA 및 B&Company Vietnam과 협력하여 베트남의 주택 투자 개발에 필수적인 주택 대출 제도 개선을 위한 정보를 수집하고, 이를 통해 베트남 정부에 앞으로 필요한 정책을 제안하기 위한 조사를 실시했습니다.

 

고객: 일본 국제 협력 기구 베트남 사무소(JICA), 도쿄 미쓰비시 UFJ 은행, 주식회사
유형: 시장 조사, 컨설팅
시간: 2016
상태: 완전한

Challenges

To thoroughly review the overall situation of housing, rental properties and real estate financing required a huge scale of researches, from studying legal framework, upcoming visions and policies, gathering information to comprehend current issues of housing market to conducting a mass survey to acquire necessary understanding regarding buyers’ demand and needs.

The survey conducted among consumers played a centric role in providing practical statistics for project consultants and advisors to catch the picture and build a proper forecast model. Therefore, it was crucial to prepare the most appropriate design for respondent selection and then implementation. Additionally, how to apply formulas to calculate and estimate the situation and future demand, hence provide the most relevant schemes to improve housing loans in Vietnam was another question. It also required a close coordination between the collection team and the analysis team to flexibly combine and swap among multiple sources and techniques to be able to build up the most insightful and reliable output in each segment.

Solutions

In order to gather sufficient information in various real estate related segments, the project team explicitly divided it into 2 main tasks, which were to conduct desk search about current regulations, conditions for housing loans and to carry out the mass survey among consumers to obtain people’s real demand for housing finance.

Initially, several desk researches on different topics were run separately and simultaneously, with the aim to dissecting the original questions through distinguishing angles of different stakeholders, including the government, home buyers, suppliers, financial institutions and the housing market itself. Therefrom, the project team would be able to establish a solid and entire landscape.

The consumer survey was combined of 2 methods, in which the sample for face-to-face street interview was 1,200 and for online survey was 2,000. To unify the design of the survey that was supposed to identify and break down financial needs of house purchasers, both offline and online collection targeted four same groups of respondents, based on their past experience of buying house, future demand and plan to buy a house and intention to mobilize money from bank loans. The content of the questionnaire was determined towards predefined models and in-depth analysis by specifying typical indicators, such as Loan to Value (LTV), monthly repayment ratio (MR)… Thanks to that, findings of desk research and survey were consolidated and assembled in forecast models.

That is to say, all formulas and models applied in calculation and estimation were carefully considered and picked up in prior to fieldwork implementation, so that they were compatible for analysis. In this project, many ideas from internal consultants and other experts were referred to in order to propose the most appropriate working models.

Results

After the data synthetization, processing and analysis, the project successfully extracted some concise but valuable key findings that could contribute to the enhancement of the Vietnam’s real estate industry in general and the rental housing and housing loans in particular.

  • Firstly, from reviewing current market situation, current legal environment and policies, the Vietnamese government had set a direction for developing a national strategy until 2030, in which housing finance policies were addressed until 2020. However, it required more sufficient instruction documents from related agencies, such as the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), so that credit institutions could arrange actions to correspond to the nation’s visions.
  • From market’s viewpoint, demand for housing in Vietnam was high, regardless of different classes or incomes. It was estimated that by 2035, there would be a need of more than 100,000 housing units to absorb the demand of middle-aged and middle-income groups in Hanoi and Hochiminh City, which’d value of more than 150 trillion VND. However, limited capital remained one of the biggest issues. While bank loan services were still unable to earn trust among consumers, economic incapability might continue to drag down the actual consumption compared with the expected figures.
  • In the meantime, rental housing, leasing and low-cost properties were also facing troubles instead of providing an alternative source for residence. It came from the lack of government legislation and subsidies, insufficiencies in supplies’ quantity and quality. Despite all promotion efforts outlined by the authorities, it would take time to complete the whole system and put it into a practical, efficient implementation.
  • Upon collected data and information, the project team came up with initiatives for a new housing loan scheme, which proposed more active participation from government, financial institutions and other organizations. Firstly, it was important to build specific conditions for eligibility of houses and borrowers and expand the elaborate idea on the nationwide scale. Secondly, it urged the revoke of the government’s role in supporting house financing, by issuing more favorable regulations, adjusting financial instruments, creating long-term funds… Financial institutions like commercial banks were also called to engage more in the implementation, while foreign assistance, such as from JICA, was paramount in drawing low-interest ODA funds to the domestic market.
뉴스레터 구독